Extreme value wind speed recurrence period determination method and device considering wind speed extra-large value

Abstract

The invention discloses an extreme value wind speed recurrence period determination method and device considering a wind speed extra-large value. The extreme value wind speed recurrence period determination method comprises the following steps: checking and selecting an extra-large value in a sequence from an average wind speed sequence with the maximum wind speed of 10min over the years; and by constructing an expectation and mean square error calculation method under the condition of containing an extra-large value, on the basis of empirical frequency calculation, estimating position parameters and scale parameters of a Gunn Bell extreme value distribution model, enabling the recurrence period of the extra-large value to be subjected to iterative trial calculation until the error requirement is met, and obtaining the final recurrence period and distribution model parameters. The extreme value wind speed recurrence period determination method provided by the invention can effectivelysolve the problem of unreliable design wind speed value caused by inaccurate estimation of an extra-large value recurrence period when a frequency distribution model is adopted to analyze a maximum 10min average wind speed sequence over the years. According to the extreme value wind speed recurrence period determination method, a reliable extra-large value recurrence period estimation method is provided, and the design wind speed obtained on the basis can ensure the wind resistance reliability of the project.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind resistance of structures, in particular to a method and device for determining the return period of extreme wind speed considering extremely large wind speed values. Background technique [0002] In the field system of engineering wind resistance, it is necessary to calculate the design wind speed to ensure the reliability of wind resistance structure design. The value of the design wind speed is generally calculated by using the maximum 10-min average wind speed sequence of the meteorological station in the area where the project is located for frequency analysis and calculation. The "Code for Loading of Building Structures" GB50009-2012 recommends the Gumbel extreme value distribution model. [0003] With the emergence of extreme weather, there will often be a large value that deviates from the center of the sequence point group in the maximum 10-min average wind speed sequence over the years. If ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the difficulty of verifying the return period of the extra-large value when using the maximum 10-min average wind speed sequence over the years containing the extra-large value to carry out frequency analysis and calculation of the design wind speed at present, or to directly eliminate the extra-large value and ignore the influence of the return period on the sample frequency distribution , leading to the problem that the frequency distribution model uses the annual maximum wind speed extreme value sequence to analyze and design the wind speed inaccurately, a method and device for determining the return period of the extreme wind speed considering the extreme wind speed value are proposed

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