A method and device for determining the return period of extreme wind speed considering the extreme wind speed

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a device for determining the return period of the extreme wind speed considering the extremely large value of the wind speed. The method of the present invention checks and selects the extra-large value in the sequence of the maximum 10-min average wind speed over the years; by constructing the calculation method of expectation and mean square error in the case of containing the extra-large value, on the basis of empirical frequency calculation, the Gumbel extremum is estimated The location parameters and scale parameters of the distribution model, and iteratively try to calculate the return period of the super large value until the error requirements are met, and the final return period and distribution model parameters are obtained. The method of the invention can effectively solve the problem of unreliable design wind speed values ​​caused by inaccurate estimation of the return period of extra large values ​​when the frequency distribution model is used to analyze the maximum 10-min average wind speed sequence over the years. The method of the invention provides a reliable method for estimating the return period of the extra-large value, and the design wind speed obtained on this basis can ensure reliable engineering wind resistance.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of structural wind resistance, and in particular relates to a method and a device for determining the return period of extreme wind speed considering the extreme value of wind speed. Background technique [0002] In the engineering wind resistance field system, it is necessary to calculate the design wind speed to ensure the reliability of the wind resistance structure design. The value of the design wind speed is generally calculated by frequency analysis and calculation using the maximum 10-min average wind speed sequence of the weather station in the area where the project is located. [0003] With the appearance of extreme weather, there is often a large value deviating from the center of the sequence point group in the maximum 10-min average wind speed sequence over the years. Without special treatment or accurate estimation of the return period of the super-large value, the Gumbel extreme value distri...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the difficulty of verifying the return period of the extra-large value when using the maximum 10-min average wind speed sequence over the years containing the extra-large value to carry out frequency analysis and calculation of the design wind speed at present, or to directly eliminate the extra-large value and ignore the influence of the return period on the sample frequency distribution , leading to the problem that the frequency distribution model uses the annual maximum wind speed extreme value sequence to analyze and design the wind speed inaccurately, a method and device for determining the return period of the extreme wind speed considering the extreme wind speed value are proposed

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