Reservoir flood control limit water level dynamic adjustment method based on forecast error override fortification

Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir flood control limit water level dynamic adjustment method based on forecast error override fortification. The method comprises the steps of 1, realizing rainfall forecast grading; 2, determining an override control rainfall threshold; 3, obtaining rainfall forecasting grade information in the next 24 hours and judging whether the rainfall forecasting grade in the next 24 hours is a rainfall forecasting grade of light rain or below; 4, dynamically adjusting reservoir flood control limit water level of the rainfall forecast levels of the light rain and below the light rain; and 5, dynamically adjusting the reservoir flood control limit water level of the moderate rain and precipitation prediction grade above the moderate rain. According to the method, thereservoir is protected according to the condition that the average areal rainfall on the drainage basin is equivalent to the forecast override rainfall; the corresponding safety limit water level is reversely deduced according to the reservoir flood control capacity and the safety discharge control flow, the flood control water level is deduced on the basis of rainfall forecasting, the possible precipitation value range is expanded in an override mode while the forecasting precision is considered, the utilization of flood resources by the reservoir is increased, and the flood regulation risk of the reservoir is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of flood control limited water level adjustment, and in particular relates to a method for dynamically adjusting the flood control limited water level of a reservoir based on forecast error leapfrog fortification. Background technique [0002] Affected by climate change and human activities, the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources tends to be more uneven. Coupled with the rapid development of my country's social economy, the gap in people's demand for water resources is increasing. Regulating surface runoff through reservoirs on large rivers is an important measure to meet social water demand. Reservoir flood regulation is an important type of reservoir regulation of river runoff. For a long time, reservoir flood dispatching has implemented a static dispatching mode that does not consider forecast information, that is, based on flood frequency analysis and hydrological statistics, fixed flo...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The flood limit water level determined by the historical flood data series obviously requires the reservoir to prevent the design or verification standard (the probability of occurrence is very small) of the flood during the flood season. resource utilization

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