Regional photovoltaic monthly power generating capacity prediction method based on normalization fitting

A forecasting method and power generation technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of large influence on power generation and little data on photovoltaic monthly power generation, and achieve simple forecasting methods, strong operability and popularization and application value effect

CN111178609APending Publication Date: 2020-05-19STATE GRID HEBEI ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD +2
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Current Assignee / Owner
Publication Date
2020-05-19

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Abstract

The invention relates to a regional photovoltaic monthly power generating capacity prediction method based on normalization fitting. The method comprises the following steps: firstly summarizing the power generating data and installed capacity data of all photovoltaic power stations in a region, and calculating the monthly utilization hours; solving a fitting polynomial by utilizing a least squaremethod and taking months as independent variables; and finally, calculating the power generating capacity of the predicted month in combination with the newly added installed capacity of regional photovoltaic planning. The method only needs to use the power generating capacity and the abandoned power amount data of the region, does not need the data of each photovoltaic single station, is small in dependence on the data amount, and is also suitable for regions where new photovoltaic power stations are continuously built and the installed capacity is rapidly increased. The method is simple andpractical, and has very strong operability and promotion and application values.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation, and more specifically relates to a method for predicting monthly photovoltaic power generation in a region based on normalized fitting. Background technique

[0002] With the large-scale development and grid connection of photovoltaic resources, the problem of new energy consumption has been brought. At present, cross-regional power trading adopts a trading model based on annual contracts and supplemented by monthly temporary transactions. In the process of signing long-term new energy trading contracts, it is necessary to consider the power generation capacity of wind power and photovoltaic stations in the next year or several months; When executing long-term new energy transactions, the process of decomposing new energy power generation into monthly power generation plans also requires wind power and photovoltaic power generation data. Therefore, the forecast of photovolt...

Examples

Embodiment Construction

[0039] The principles and features of the present invention are described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, and the examples given are only used to explain the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.

[0040] Such as figure 1 As shown, a method for forecasting regional photovoltaic monthly power generation based on normalized fitting, the method includes:

[0041] S1: Summarize the power generation data and installed capacity data of photovoltaic power plants in the area;

[0042] S2: Normalize the power generation data and perform curve fitting;

[0043] S3: Solve the monthly utilization hours and installed capacity, and predict the monthly photovoltaic power generation in the region.

[0044] On the basis of the above technical solutions, the solutions provided by the present invention are further explained.

[0045] In a specific embodiment, the power generation data includes the total actual power generatio...