Load comprehensive prediction method

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a load comprehensive prediction method, which comprises the following steps of: analyzing and counting average power load data at the same time point in short-term time and meteorological data corresponding to each time point, and determining meteorological data parameters influencing the change of the power load data; establishing a short-term fractionalBrownian motion model between the power load data and the meteorological data in a short period of time; establishing a medium and long term load prediction model between the power load data and the economic policy data; optimizing the short-term fractional Brownian motion model and the medium-and-long-term load prediction model to obtain a fractional Brownian motion optimization model about the power load within a short medium-and-long term limit; predicting short-term, medium-term and long-term power load data by using a fractional Brownian motion optimization model; according to the scheme,short-term and medium-and-long-term prediction is carried out on the power load, comprehensive prediction on the power load is realized, and the accuracy of prediction data is high.

Description

technical field [0001] Embodiments of the present invention relate to the technical field of load forecasting, and in particular to a comprehensive load forecasting method. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting is an important part of power system operation and an important content of power dispatching. According to power dispatching, power system operators can determine the running time of the grid and reduce potential losses. Therefore, accurate power load forecasting helps operators grasp the future power development trend and better dispatch the grid. [0003] In electric load forecasting, many factors affect the predicted value of electric charge to varying degrees. Some factors vary by nature, such as weather. Some factors vary according to regional conditions, such as the speed of industrial and agricultural development; some factors are major events that cannot be estimated, such as severe disasters, and the impact of each factor on the load may be d...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] For this reason, the embodiment of the present invention provides a comprehensive load forecasting method, which adopts the influence degree of the two influencing factors of economic policy data and meteorological data on the power load data to establish a fractional Brownian motion optimization model, and performs short-term and mid-to-long-term forecasts on the power load , to realize all-round and comprehensive forecasting of power loads, so as to solve the problem of inability to comprehensively and comprehensively forecast power loads in the prior art, and the prediction accuracy is low

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