Numerical model rainfall forecast correction method and system and storage medium

A numerical model and precipitation technology, applied in complex mathematical operations, weather condition prediction, measuring devices, etc., can solve the problems of slow forecast accuracy and difficulty in numerical model forecasting, achieve a small amount of calculation, improve the accuracy of rainy and sunny forecasts and Practicality, revised results, scientific and more reasonable effect

Active Publication Date: 2020-12-04
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

Quantitative precipitation forecasting is considered to be one of the most difficult challenges in numerical model forecasting due to too many variables affecting its temporal variation and spatial distribution, and the improvement of its forecasting accuracy is relatively slow

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  • Numerical model rainfall forecast correction method and system and storage medium
  • Numerical model rainfall forecast correction method and system and storage medium
  • Numerical model rainfall forecast correction method and system and storage medium

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Embodiment Construction

[0039] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0040] see figure 1 , is a schematic flowchart of a correction method for a numerical model precipitation forecast provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention, including:

[0041] S101. Determine the first time period, and determine the training period time window for participating in the precipitation forecast scoring statistics according to the first time period;

[0042] Specifically, the length of time selected for the first time period can reflect the a...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a numerical mode rainfall forecast correction method. The correction method comprises the steps of determining a training period time window participating in rainfall forecastscoring statistics according to a first time period; extracting a numerical mode rainfall forecast value and corresponding rainfall observation data in a training period, and generating a training data set; respectively carrying out air elimination processing on the rainfall forecast values in the training period; calculating a rainfall forecast score when the rainfall value reaches a first rainfall threshold and above according to the rainfall observation data to obtain a threshold score sequence; taking the rainfall threshold value when the rainfall forecast score value is the highest as theoptimal emptying threshold value of the forecast period; correcting the rainfall forecast numerical value smaller than the optimal air elimination threshold value in the forecast period; and correcting the rainfall forecast value. According to the correction method of the numerical model rainfall forecast, the problem of null report of small-magnitude rainfall can be effectively reduced, and theaccuracy and practicability of the rainfall forecast product for forecasting sunny and rainy days are remarkably improved. The invention further discloses a system and a storage medium.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of meteorological forecasting, in particular to a correction method, device and storage medium for numerical model precipitation forecasting. Background technique [0002] Precipitation is the meteorological element that the public is most concerned about. Various fields such as government, industry, agriculture, hydrology and geological disaster warning have higher and higher requirements for the accuracy of precipitation forecast. Quantitative precipitation forecasting is considered to be one of the most difficult challenges in numerical model forecasting due to too many variables affecting its temporal variation and spatial distribution, and the improvement of its forecasting accuracy is relatively slow. The main reason is that the quantitative precipitation forecast provides the total precipitation over a period of time, and its accuracy is affected by many factors such as the location of precipitation, ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06F17/10
CPCG01W1/10G06F17/10
Inventor 张海鹏陈晓国孟晓波黎振宇张志强
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD
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