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Company default risk assessment and prediction method based on blockchain and virtual currency characteristics

A technology of virtual currency and forecasting method, applied in special data processing applications, complex mathematical operations, resources, etc., can solve problems such as the lack of risk assessment methods, and achieve the effect of improving accuracy, applicability, and strong scalability

Pending Publication Date: 2021-01-22
广州市希格信息科技有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0008] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a company default risk assessment and prediction method based on blockchain and virtual currency characteristics to solve the relative lack of risk assessment methods related to virtual currency, and the Morton model is not applicable to the field of virtual currency , the Z-score model relies on qualitative subjective judgments to model around the combination of virtual currency and some unique characteristic parameters of the blockchain itself, and integrates and improves some quantitative methods that have been proven effective in historical practice to form a A new algorithm for virtual currency default assessment and prediction to ensure the accuracy and applicability of the algorithm for virtual currency default assessment and prediction

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  • Company default risk assessment and prediction method based on blockchain and virtual currency characteristics
  • Company default risk assessment and prediction method based on blockchain and virtual currency characteristics
  • Company default risk assessment and prediction method based on blockchain and virtual currency characteristics

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Embodiment Construction

[0039] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0040] A company default risk assessment and prediction method based on blockchain and virtual currency characteristics, combining Figure 1 to Figure 2 shown, including the following steps:

[0041] S1. Based on the historical data of the virtual currency market, select the risk factor, which is the default risk factor.

[0042] Risk factors include pre-mining, rate of return, volatility and minimum rate of return, etc.

[0043] Among them, pre-mining (Pre-mined) is a very important risk factor, because based on the current virtual currency ICO market, before the virtual currency is publicly issued, pre-mining will have the developer's virtual currency in advance. But if developers have a large amount of mined virtual currency, they will be more inclined to take advantage of the price and sell it quickly. Moreover, a large number ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a company default risk assessment and prediction method based on blockchain and virtual currency features, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, selecting a risk factor based on historical data of a virtual currency market; S2, carrying out mathematical modeling on the risk factor selected in the step S1, and establishing a relationship model between the risk factor and the default probability; S3, substituting the risk factor observation value of the target company into the relation model in the step S2, and solving an expected default probability; and S4,evaluating the prediction capability of the relationship model in the step S2 through a result evaluation index. Modeling is carried out by combining the virtual currency and some unique characteristic parameters of a blockchain, some quantitative methods which are proved to be effective by historical practices are fused and improved, a logistic regression model is adopted to replace a Zscore model to evaluate the default probability, and evaluation and prediction of the default risk of a virtual currency initially-created company are completed. Accuracy and applicability of predicting the default probability are greatly improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of virtual currency, and more specifically relates to a company default risk assessment and prediction method based on blockchain and virtual currency characteristics. Background technique [0002] The application of blockchain technology in the financial field has produced virtual currency. In 2009, Bitcoin, the first virtual currency based on blockchain technology, appeared; in 2014, the first smart contract platform, Ethereum, appeared, accompanied by Ethereum. Ethereum's smart contract platform makes ICO (Initial Coin Offering) possible in practice. Program developers only need to develop a simple program to issue their own virtual currency on the Ethereum platform. ICO is a method of simulating an IPO through blockchain technology and low-cost financing in the virtual currency market. The fundraiser sells its own virtual currency to investors, and the investor uses a publicly traded virtual cu...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06F30/20G06F17/18G06Q20/06
CPCG06F17/18G06Q10/0635G06Q10/06393G06Q20/065G06F30/20
Inventor 杨晨光董一均李乐平
Owner 广州市希格信息科技有限公司
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