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Three-dimensional landslide motion risk probability evaluation method

A technology of risk probability and evaluation method, applied in the field of landslide risk prediction, can solve problems such as limited research and achieve the effect of improving calculation efficiency

Inactive Publication Date: 2021-09-03
CHENGDU UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
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Problems solved by technology

However, current research is limited on how to correctly determine the statistics of input parameters in dynamic numerical models

Method used

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  • Three-dimensional landslide motion risk probability evaluation method
  • Three-dimensional landslide motion risk probability evaluation method
  • Three-dimensional landslide motion risk probability evaluation method

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[0097] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0098] For the technical problem of the present invention, refer to figure 1 and figure 2 , the invention discloses a three-dimensional landslide movement risk probability evaluation method, the method may include the following steps:

[0099] Step S1: Determine past landslides corresponding to potential landslides, and select multiple observation points in the landslide accumulation area of ​​the past landslides;

[0100] In the present...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a three-dimensional landslide motion risk probability evaluation method, and relates to the technical field of landslide motion risk prediction. According to the method, a dynamic numerical model is used for landslide motion analysis, the final accumulation depth serves as observation information, the uncertainty of input parameters of the dynamic numerical model is calibrated through a multi-observation Bayesian inverse analysis method based on MCMC simulation, and posterior distribution is obtained. Then, the posterior distribution is used as the input of the potential landslide to estimate the override probability of the maximum motion height and the maximum motion speed of the potential landslide on the three-dimensional terrain, and a probabilistic motion risk map for quantitative risk evaluation of the individual landslide is generated. According to the method, the multi-response global Kriging agent model is adopted to approximate the relationship between the input and output of the model, so that the multi-response global Kriging agent model completely replaces a dynamic numerical model to carry out Bayesian back analysis and probability motion risk assessment, and the calculation efficiency is greatly improved on the premise that the precision is not lost.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of landslide motion risk prediction, in particular to a three-dimensional landslide motion risk probability evaluation method. Background technique [0002] Landslides cause severe economic losses and human casualties, yet their identification, monitoring and control measures are not always technically or economically feasible. Therefore, landslide QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis, quantitative risk assessment) considering disaster scenarios and their potential consequences is becoming a research hotspot. In order to assess the potential risk caused by a single landslide, several probabilities must be quantitatively evaluated, including: (i) the probability of instability at a certain scale within a given regression period; The probability of the position is usually called the motion risk assessment; (iii) the probability that the hazard-affected body appears on the grid; (iv) the probability that the hazard...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06Q10/06G06F111/08G06F119/14
CPCG06F30/20G06Q10/0635G06F2111/08G06F2119/14
Inventor 曾鹏孙小平李天斌许强
Owner CHENGDU UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
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