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Freight railway rainstorm risk level forecasting method

A risk level, rainstorm technology, applied in the field of applied meteorology, can solve the problem of the meteorological department being unable to transport the rainstorm risk forecast along the line, and achieve the effect of easy implementation and simple calculation.

Pending Publication Date: 2022-05-27
河北省气象服务中心(河北省气象影视中心)
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for forecasting the risk level of heavy rain on freight railways, so as to solve the problem that the current meteorological department cannot forecast the risk of rainstorm along the transportation line for railway transportation

Method used

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  • Freight railway rainstorm risk level forecasting method
  • Freight railway rainstorm risk level forecasting method

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Embodiment Construction

[0045] The present invention takes a large-scale rainfall weather along the Shuohuang Railway on July 31, 2020 as an example, to forecast the risk level of heavy rainfall, the specific steps are as follows:

[0046] (1) Set the freight railway rainstorm risk forecast model as follows:

[0047] I dr ＝R×r+T×t+S×s+D×d (1)

[0048] where, I dr It is the rainstorm disaster risk level index, R is the rainstorm intensity sub-index, and the maximum hourly rainfall is p max On behalf of the rainfall process, T is the duration sub-index of the rainfall process, S is the speed index of the train operation, D is the time sub-index of the train tracking interval, and r, t, s, and d are the weight coefficients corresponding to each sub-index.

[0049] (2) Determine the rainstorm intensity sub-index R: Through the precipitation forecast of the next 24 hours of the previous day, match the maximum hourly rainfall value forecast for each station along the Shuohuang Railway, p max ≥ 70mm is assigned a...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a freight railway rainstorm risk grade forecasting method, which mainly comprises the following steps of: setting a freight railway rainstorm risk forecasting model, assigning a rainstorm intensity sub-index, a rainfall process duration sub-index, a train operation speed sub-index and a train tracking interval time sub-index, calculating a weight coefficient corresponding to each sub-index; and dividing and forecasting the storm risk grade forecasting grade of the freight railway. According to the method, meteorological conditions and freight railway factors are fused, disaster-inducing factor dangerousness, disaster-bearing body vulnerability and the like are comprehensively considered, hourly rainfall intensity, duration time and the like are used as disaster-inducing factor dangerousness indexes, and train running speed per hour, train tracking interval time and the like are used as disaster-bearing body vulnerability indexes; according to the constructed freight railway rainstorm risk forecasting model, a rainstorm risk forecasting index sequence can be obtained through calculation, so that rainstorm risk grade forecasting division is carried out, and rainstorm risk grade forecasting of different sections of the freight railway and comprehensive rainstorm risk forecasting of the freight railway are realized.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to an applied meteorological technique, specifically a freight railway rainstorm risk level forecasting method. Background [0002] The rainstorm disaster has been listed by international organizations as one of the "ten most serious natural disasters", and it is also the first of nine major meteorological disasters that affect the safe operation of railways in North China, East China and Central China. China's coal resources are mostly concentrated in Shanxi, Shaanxi and western Inner Mongolia, while the "big households" of coal are concentrated in East China and South China, and the "West Coal East Transport" and "North Coal South Transport" are of great significance to China's energy supply and coal exports. Heavy rain and derivative secondary disasters can easily lead to major accidents such as large-scale suspension, derailment, collision or overturning of freight trains running on track, resulting in serious economic loss...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/30
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q10/06393G06Q10/067G06Q50/40Y02A90/10
Inventor 王洁曲晓黎张中杰张金满张娣杨琳晗张健
Owner 河北省气象服务中心(河北省气象影视中心)
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