A dynamic probabilistic power flow calculation method considering wind power connection

Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamical probability load flow calculation method with consideration of wind power integration. A draught-fan output model is established on the basis of the Markov chain and a state scenario tree, draught-fan output historical data are normalized, states are partitioned, and a state transfer matrix is obtained according to the change relations between the states; according to the draught-fan output state at the current moment and the state transfer matrix, the most possible states of the draught-fan output at the next moment and the probabilities of the most possible states are predicted, repeated analysis is conducted, and the state scenario tree in a future period is generated; multi-period and multi-state distribution of the draught-fan output is obtained through the state scenario tree; probability load flow calculation based on the semi-invariant method and improved Von-Mises series expansion is conducted on each time section. Calculation results can reflect the relations between probability load flows of a power grid in different time periods, probability distribution of the draught-fan output states can be reasonably predicted, the change rule of the draught-fan output states is accurately described, and the method is used for comprehensively assessing safety and stability of a power system achieving wind power integration.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system steady-state analysis, and more specifically relates to a dynamic probabilistic power flow calculation method considering wind power access. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the demand for electricity has developed rapidly, and the scale of power grids around the world has expanded at an alarming rate. Because of its abundant sources and no pollution to the environment, wind power accounts for an increasing proportion of grid power. However, because the power provided by the wind turbine is affected by factors such as the wind force and wind direction at the wind farm, wind power generation is unstable compared with traditional thermal power and hydropower generation. While it provides clean energy for the power system, it also makes the entire power system It becomes difficult to predict, and the uncertainty is greatly increased, which brings great challenges to the stable ope...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the wind turbine output probability model of a single time section is difficult to accurately describe the regularity and correlation of wind power generation changes in different time periods, and the resulting probabilistic power flow calculation results naturally cannot accurately explain the relationship between the operating status of the power grid at different time sections The question of how the randomness of wind power generation affects the power system is still not well resolved

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