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Communication traffic prediction method for distribution line information monitoring service

A power distribution line and traffic forecasting technology, which is applied in the direction of electrical components, digital transmission systems, transmission systems, etc., can solve problems such as not considering dynamic arrival characteristics, multi-allocation of bandwidth resources, large bandwidth deviation, etc., to achieve reasonable planning and configuration Bandwidth resources, the effect of improving prediction accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-10-12
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Due to the lack of consideration of the dynamic arrival characteristics of distribution line information monitoring business data transmission in the context of smart grid, there is a problem of multiple allocation of bandwidth resources caused by the large deviation between the predicted value of business traffic and the actual bandwidth required

Method used

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  • Communication traffic prediction method for distribution line information monitoring service
  • Communication traffic prediction method for distribution line information monitoring service
  • Communication traffic prediction method for distribution line information monitoring service

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Embodiment Construction

[0034] The preferred embodiments will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be emphasized that the following description is only exemplary and not intended to limit the scope of the invention and its application. Taking a typical business scenario of distribution line information monitoring as an example, the implementation process of this method is described. The business scenario parameters are shown in Table 1. Assuming that each substation has 32 outgoing lines, each distribution line has 15 pole-mounted switches, 2 switching stations, 8 ring main unit units, 30 box-type substations, and 50 pole-mounted transformers, then the distribution of 32 outgoing lines The net flow of network automation business is (12×15+93×2+32×8+23×30+13×50)×32×8=502272bit / s≈502kbps, corresponding to the Poisson arrival parameter of the Poisson traffic model in this method lambda. At the same time, the additional bytes of the protocol are conside...

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Abstract

The invention provides a communication traffic prediction method for the distribution line information monitoring service. Aiming at that the existing traffic prediction method gives no consideration to the dynamic arrival characteristic of service communication data flows and causes a problem of great deviation of a traffic prediction value, the method provided by the invention gives full consideration to a dynamic arrival factor of the service data flows, and the method comprises steps: firstly, on the basis of performing traffic parameter estimation of a distribution line information monitoring service through a poisson traffic model, effectively predicting traffic of the distribution line information monitoring service according to a queuing theory model; secondly, training model parameters with original data and performing parameter optimization; and finally, performing communication traffic prediction through a poisson queuing theory traffic model. The method provided by the invention overcomes a problem that the conventional method cannot describe influence of a poisson traffic dynamic influence factor of the service on a prediction result, improves prediction accuracy, and facilitates implementation of reasonable planning and allocation of bandwidth resource of an intelligent distribution and utilization communication network.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of intelligent power distribution and utilization communication, and in particular relates to a communication flow prediction method for distribution line information monitoring business. Background technique [0002] As a part of the power communication system, the distribution communication network is the carrier of various information transmission in the distribution network, and plays an important role in distribution automation, power information collection, distributed power access and other services. Communication traffic prediction is the basis of communication network bandwidth allocation. The flow prediction method of the current power distribution information monitoring business uses a calculation method that combines intuitive prediction and elastic coefficient. [0003] Due to the lack of consideration of the dynamic arrival characteristics of distribution line information monitoring business d...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H04L12/24
Inventor 陆俊彭文昊张旭
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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