Argentina squid resource recruitment prediction method

Abstract

The invention relates to an Argentina squid resource recruitment prediction method, which is characterized in that by using the correlation between a time sequence value formed by marine environment factors of a feeding ground in a feeding month and a CPUE (Catch per Unit Effort) time sequence of the current year, marine environment factors of a sea area with high correlation are selected to act as correlation factors for influences of a feeding and inhabiting environment for Argentina squid resource recruitment; by using the correlation between a time sequence value formed by marine environment factors of a spawning ground in a spawning month and a CPUE time sequence of the next year, marine environment factors of a sea area with high correlation are selected to act as correlation factors for influences of a spawning and inhabiting environment for the resource recruitment; the inhabiting environment appropriateness degrees of the spawning ground and the feeding ground are expressed through the proportion PS and the proportion PF by using the proportion of an appropriate surface water temperature range of the spawning ground in the spawning month to the total area and the proportion of an appropriate surface water temperature range of the feeding ground in the feeding month to the total area; and BP network structure prediction models are built respectively by using different combination of the selected environment factors, the proportion PS and the proportion PF, and an optimal model is selected so as to be used for medium and long term fishing condition forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for mid- and long-term forecasting of fishery conditions, in particular to a method for forecasting the replenishment of Argentine squid resources. Background technique [0002] Forecasting of resource replenishment is a kind of medium and long-term forecast of fishery situation. Accurate forecasting of resource replenishment is the key to scientific management and rational development of fishery. Argentine squid is a species with a short life cycle. Although it has a strong self-regulation ability, it can respond to changes in the marine environment in a short period of time and quickly adapt to such changes. The impact is still significant. Existing studies have shown that the most important factor affecting the replenishment of squid resources in Argentina is environmental factors. Therefore, the current forecast research on its resource replenishment is also based on this. However, the environmental factors sele...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the environmental factors selected in previous studies are relatively single, and the forecast models established are also simple linear models.

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