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Transformer anti-aging repair strategy making method based on semi-Markov chain

A maintenance strategy and technology for transformers, applied to instruments, switchgear, electrical components, etc., can solve problems such as system risks, regardless of transformer operation conditions, and underutilized asset values, to reduce errors and optimize preventive maintenance. Decision-making strategy, the effect of reducing maintenance costs

Active Publication Date: 2017-09-22
TIANSHENGQIAO BUREAU CSG EHV POWER TRANSMISSION CO
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Problems solved by technology

Since this strategy does not take into account the actual operation of the transformer, the transformer with a bad operating environment may not be decommissioned at the end of its service life, which may cause risks to the system. In good condition, premature decommissioning will leave the value of the asset underutilized

Method used

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  • Transformer anti-aging repair strategy making method based on semi-Markov chain
  • Transformer anti-aging repair strategy making method based on semi-Markov chain
  • Transformer anti-aging repair strategy making method based on semi-Markov chain

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Embodiment

[0062] Please refer to figure 1 , a semi-Markov chain-based transformer aging prevention maintenance strategy formulation method, which includes the following steps:

[0063] (1) Establish an aging model for preventive maintenance of transformers;

[0064] It includes the following substeps:

[0065] 1-1) Establish a transformer equipment aging state table, decompose and express the state of the equipment as: X={D 1 ,D 2 ,D 3 ,...,D k},D k status is D k-1 Situation after state deterioration, X t is the state of the device at time t;

[0066] 1-2) Establish the equipment aging state transition matrix model, assuming that the equipment state is transferred at time t:

[0067] t=0,t 1 ,t 2 ,...(t q+1 -t q >0), Indicates that the device at time t q Assuming that the maintenance decision (maintenance, no maintenance) is made at time t, the matrix model of the probability of the equipment state shifting to a certain aging stage is:

[0068] P ij (a t )=p(X t+1 =j...

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Abstract

The invention provides a transformer anti-aging repair strategy making method based on a semi-Markov chain. The method comprises the following steps of (1) building an aging model for preventive repair of a transformer; (2) obtaining an index of the aging state of the transformer, wherein the index parameter Z is {1, 2, 3, to L}; and (3) building the confidence level of the aging state of the transformer; and (4) according to the confidence level of the aging state of the transformer, performing repeated iteration to obtain the optimum repair strategy and the total cost of the repair strategy. The existing transformer preventive repair decision strategy can be optimized; the economic loss due to equipment use stop during the equipment overhaul is considered; an aging model of the transformer based on random failure is built; the semi-Markov decision is used for evaluating the transformer state; meanwhile, the confidence level of an observation index is built; and the state evaluation result of the transformer equipment is corrected through a Bayesian theory. The model and evaluation decision method built by the invention have the advantages that the transformer preventive repair decision strategy can be optimized; the use efficiency of the transformer is improved; and meanwhile, the repair cost is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of repair and maintenance of power system equipment, in particular to a method for formulating a transformer aging prevention and maintenance strategy based on a semi-Markov chain. Background technique [0002] In the high-voltage direct current transmission system, the transformer is one of the most important equipment, and it is at the core of the conversion between alternating current and direct current. When the transformer has been in operation for 30 years, the transformer inspection project is carried out according to the preventive test and maintenance project, and the life of the transformer needs to be evaluated to determine the actual service life of the transformer. [0003] The age of transformers can be divided into natural age and insulation age. Natural age refers to the actual age of the transformer in normal operation. Insulation age refers to the benchmark age corresponding to the monitoring quant...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/00G06Q50/06H02B3/00
CPCG06Q10/20G06Q50/06H02B3/00
Inventor 蒙健明郭峰李家羊杨跃辉戴甲水向权舟邹显斌张岱葛梦昕樊友平
Owner TIANSHENGQIAO BUREAU CSG EHV POWER TRANSMISSION CO
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