Analyzing method and system for dangerous events of long-term on-orbit manned spacecraft

Abstract

The invention relates to a long-term on-orbit danger event analysis method of a manned spacecraft and a danger analysis system. The analysis method comprises the following steps: a, determining dangerevents in an on-orbit process of the manned spacecraft, and analyzing consequence status and severity levels of the danger events; b, carrying out function analysis on the manned spacecraft, and carrying out hierarchical division on functions of the manned spacecraft according to the danger events; c, identifying sources of danger that can lead to danger events; d, analyzing a sequence of dangerevents caused by each danger source, determining severity degrees of the danger events, and analyzing risk of fault consequences of the danger events; and e, for high-risk danger events, using fault tree analysis to fault trees in a prioritized manner for reanalysis. According to the analysis method of the invention, serious dangers which may occur in the on-orbit running process are identified, system resource cost minimization of safety control measures is ensured, and maximum efficiency is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of overall design of spacecraft, in particular to a method for analyzing a manned spacecraft's long-term on-orbit dangerous event and a manned spacecraft risk analysis system. Background technique [0002] The primary task of manned spacecraft in orbit is to ensure the safety of astronauts. With the development of manned spacecraft in the direction of complexity, large-scale and long-term orbital flight, the hazards that can cause serious consequences are becoming more and more serious. If a catastrophic accident occurs, it will cause casualties and heavy property losses. In the design stage of manned spacecraft, it is necessary to carry out the analysis of hazard sources and hazardous events, and through the control and elimination of hazards, the safety of the spacecraft is guaranteed to be at an acceptable level. [0003] Since my country has no long-term experience of large-scale manned spacecraft opera...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] 1. Failure to identify and analyze hazards due to on-orbit maintenance operations;

[0005] 2. It cannot support the quantitative calculation of the probability of astronauts evacuating due to failures during the long-term operation of manned spacecraft;

[0006] 3. Due to the long flight time and too many risk factors identified, a large amount of system resources are required to support safety control measures

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