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A method for forecasting river flood peak water level based on conditional probability distribution

A technology of conditional probability distribution and flood peak water level, applied in forecasting, weather forecasting, instruments, etc., to achieve the effect of strong theoretical foundation and reduced arbitrariness

Active Publication Date: 2021-08-24
江西省水利科学研究院
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  • Abstract
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

At present, there is no literature that introduces the construction method of conditional probability distribution based on Copula function into the research of river flood peak water level forecasting

Method used

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  • A method for forecasting river flood peak water level based on conditional probability distribution
  • A method for forecasting river flood peak water level based on conditional probability distribution
  • A method for forecasting river flood peak water level based on conditional probability distribution

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Embodiment Construction

[0022] The present invention will be further described below by means of embodiments and in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0023] Such as Figure 1-Figure 2 As shown, a river channel flood peak water level prediction method based on conditional probability distribution, counts the upstream and downstream flood peak water levels and propagation time series, and on the basis of determining the marginal probability distribution function, uses the Copula function to construct the upstream flood peak water level and downstream flood peak water level, propagation The two-dimensional joint probability distribution function of time, and then solve the conditional probability distribution function of the downstream flood peak water level and propagation time when the upstream flood peak water level is given, and then predict the downstream flood peak water level and its occurrence time. figure 1 It is the calculation flowchart of the present embodiment, and it is carried...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a river channel flood peak water level prediction method based on conditional probability distribution. By counting the upstream and downstream flood peak water levels and propagation time series, on the basis of determining the marginal probability distribution function, the Copula function is used to respectively construct the upstream flood peak water level and the downstream flood peak water level. , the two-dimensional joint probability distribution function of the propagation time, and then solve the conditional probability distribution function of the downstream flood peak water level and propagation time when the upstream flood peak water level is given, and then predict the downstream flood peak water level and its occurrence time. Based on the probability theory and mathematical statistics method, the present invention quantitatively provides the regression curve of the flood peak water level of the upstream section, the flood peak water level of the downstream section, and the flood propagation time. The arbitrariness brought about by freehand drawing is more objective and reasonable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of flood control forecasting and early warning, in particular to a method for forecasting river flood peak water level based on conditional probability distribution. Background technique [0002] Forecasting the flood peak water level of river channel is one of the important contents of non-engineering flood control measures, which can provide technical support for flood control and emergency rescue as well as safe production of industry and agriculture. The flood in the natural channel moves from upstream to downstream along the channel in the form of flood wave, and the flood peak water level first appears in the upstream section of the channel, and then appears in the downstream section in turn. Therefore, the movement law of flood waves in the river channel can be used to predict the flood peak water level of the downstream section in the future from the current flood peak water level of the upstream section. [...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F17/15G06F17/18G01W1/10
CPCG01W1/10G06F17/15G06F17/18G06Q10/04G06Q50/26Y02A10/40
Inventor 刘章君许新发胡建民成静清温天福张范平贾磊
Owner 江西省水利科学研究院
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