Inventory optimization method based on probability demand distribution

Abstract

The invention discloses an inventory optimization method based on probability demand distribution. The method comprises the following steps of: an existing enterprise informatization management platform is relied on. inventory remainders of the commodities are extracted; warehouse entry and exit details, Sales order, purchasing multi-dimensional data such as advanced stage and the like; the methodcomprises the following steps: firstly, constructing probability distribution of warehouse-out quantity in a purchasing advance LT; if the warehouse-out quantity in the LT day is q (q is greater than0); historical warehouse-out frequency distribution is counted; according to the invention, a required probability density function f (q) can be obtained, so that an expected value corresponding to acertain probability value alpha is obtained, wherein 0 < =alpha < = 1. Therefore, a function relationship between the probability value and the demand prediction value is established. And then determining a target satisfaction rate Sopt, calculating a simulation satisfaction rate Si according to the F (alpha) traversal probability value alphai until Si is greater than or equal to the Sopt, and training an optimal probability and a corresponding demand prediction value. According to the method, the prediction idea of demand probability distribution is creatively introduced, and inventory optimization benefit maximization is achieved under the condition that the satisfaction rate is guaranteed for the pain point problems of large commodity demand fluctuation and high prediction difficulty of current enterprises.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of information forecasting, and in particular relates to the design of an inventory optimization method based on probability demand distribution. Background technique

[0002] In the activities of production, operation and commodity sales, enterprises often need to store the purchased raw materials, produced products and sold commodities for use and sales. However, real business scenarios are highly complex, and the coordination between demand and supply, consumption and storage will directly lead to an unbalanced state of supply and demand. On the one hand, it may cause a backlog of materials, resulting in slow capital turnover and increased inventory costs; on the other hand On the one hand, due to the shortage of materials, production stoppages or out-of-stock sales have caused economic losses due to reduced profits for business units.

[0003] In order to effectively manage the inventory structure, gene...

Examples

Embodiment Construction

[0032] In order to make the object and effect of the present invention clearer, the method of the present invention will be described in detail below.

[0033] The structural model of a general storage system can be expressed as figure 1 form. Due to the demand of production or sales, a certain amount of stock goods is taken out from the storage point, which is the output of the storage system. And when the continuous output of stored goods leads to the continuous reduction of the quantity in the warehouse, the enterprise must take appropriate replenishment behaviors in time, which is the input of the storage system. As for the demand in the system, the mode of demand can be uniform continuous or intermittent batch, and the quantity of demand can be deterministic or random. Replenishment can be in the form of business units ordering from outside or arranging production activities by themselves. The main quantitative indicators for researching replenishment are: determining ...

technical field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of information forecasting, and in particular relates to the design of an inventory optimization method based on probability demand distribution. Background technique

[0002] In the activities of production, operation and commodity sales, enterprises often need to store the purchased raw materials, produced products and sold commodities for use and sales. However, real business scenarios are highly complex, and the coordination between demand and supply, consumption and storage will directly lead to an unbalanced state of supply and demand. On the one hand, it may cause a backlog of materials, resulting in slow capital turnover and increased inventory costs; on the other hand On the one hand, due to the shortage of materials, production stoppages or out-of-stock sales have caused economic losses due to reduced profits for business units.

[0003] In order to effectively manage the inventory structure, gene...

Examples

Embodiment Construction

[0032] In order to make the object and effect of the present invention clearer, the method of the present invention will be described in detail below.

[0033] The structural model of a general storage system can be expressed as figure 1 form. Due to the demand of production or sales, a certain amount of stock goods is taken out from the storage point, which is the output of the storage system. And when the continuous output of stored goods leads to the continuous reduction of the quantity in the warehouse, the enterprise must take appropriate replenishment behaviors in time, which is the input of the storage system. As for the demand in the system, the mode of demand can be uniform continuous or intermittent batch, and the quantity of demand can be deterministic or random. Replenishment can be in the form of business units ordering from outside or arranging production activities by themselves. The main quantitative indicators for researching replenishment are: determining ...

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