Performance degradation model precision verification method based on leave-one-out cross validation

A cross-validation and degradation model technology, applied in multi-objective optimization, CAD numerical modeling, design optimization/simulation, etc., can solve problems such as no life prediction

Active Publication Date: 2020-03-20
湖南银杏可靠性技术研究所有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

When selecting a model, it seems that the process is relatively easy and the principle is relatively simple, but there are many practical problems in general engineering research. If the sample size is large, we can directly use all the data to calculate the prediction

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  • Performance degradation model precision verification method based on leave-one-out cross validation
  • Performance degradation model precision verification method based on leave-one-out cross validation
  • Performance degradation model precision verification method based on leave-one-out cross validation

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[0083] A performance degradation model accuracy verification method based on leave-one-out cross-validation in the present invention takes performance degradation products as the research object, and performance degradation products include long-term storage degradation failure products, long-term continuous operation degradation failure products and non-continuous operation degradation failure products type products. The definition of performance degraded products is as follows: (1) Long-term storage degraded and invalid products: refers to products that are in storage for most of the time during the entire life cycle of the product. As the service time increases, the product will produce Deterioration and aging phenomena; (2) Long-term continuous work degradation and failure products: refers to products that are in working condition most of the time during the whole life cycle of the product, and the product will deteriorate with the increase of service time , Aging phenomen...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a performance degradation model precision verification method based on leave-one-out cross verification. The method comprises the following steps: 1) collecting data; 2) determining an alternative model form; 3) fitting to obtain an alternative model equation; 4) calculating a fitting error of the alternative model; 5) calculating the predicated error of the alternative model; 6) evaluating the model by means of the predicated error; and 7) determining an optimal model. According to the method, the advantages and disadvantages of the performance degradation model are comprehensively and completely evaluated from the two perspectives of the fitting error and the prediction error, and a new thought is provided for the aspects of model verification and selection in engineering research.

Description

[0001] 1. Technical field [0002] The invention provides a performance degradation model accuracy verification method based on leave-one-out cross-validation, which belongs to the technical field of reliability engineering. [0003] 2. Background technology [0004] The research on the performance degradation model accuracy verification method based on leave-one-out cross-validation has extensive practical significance. At present, statistical methods are mainly used in model selection. Statistical methods are mainly based on data, using mathematical models, and extracting data. Features, so as to summarize the laws and trends of the data, and provide a basis for subsequent prediction and analysis. However, in practical applications, there are mostly cases with abnormal data. Usually, people will select some candidate models at the beginning of the research, then compare the candidate models with the original data, and then specify some evaluation indicators according to the n...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F111/06G06F111/10
Inventor 冯静孙权
Owner 湖南银杏可靠性技术研究所有限公司
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