Blue-party model credibility evaluation method and system based on evidence theory

Abstract

The invention provides a blue-party model credibility evaluation method and system based on an evidence theory, and the method comprises the steps: M1, converting blue-party model output data Ysi intoevidence theory representation, and recording the evidence theory representation as simulation output; m2, evaluating an estimated value output by an actual system of the blue-party model according to expert experience, and recording the estimated value as reference output; m3, performing evidence synthesis on the simulation outputs and the reference outputs of all the blue-party models; M4, performing consistency measurement on the simulation outputs and the reference outputs by adopting an evidence distance; and M5, performing consistency measurement on the simulation output and the reference output according to the evidence distance, and calculating the final credibility. The blue-party model credibility evaluation method based on the evidence theory provided by the invention comprisesan evidence synthesis method considering the index weight, so that the existing credibility evaluation framework can be utilized to the greatest extent, and the integration of multiple credibility indexes of a complex model is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of modeling and simulation, in particular to a method and system for evaluating the credibility of blue square models based on evidence theory. Background technique [0002] Weapon equipment system evaluation is a research hotspot in the military field. It is widely used in the demonstration and research of various weapons and equipment. It is of great significance to the development of new weapons, equipment design, demonstration and optimization configuration, and combat theory research. The use of simulation methods to evaluate weapons and equipment systems has been widely used because of its economical, safe, repeatable, non-destructive, unrestricted by climate conditions, and unrestricted by site space. [0003] The credibility of the model is a concern of system simulation. The credibility of the model is usually evaluated by the result verification method. The so-called result verification refers to the behavi...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above result verification methods all require a large number of real system outputs to be compared with the simulation model outputs. For the blue square model, there is usually no real system output, which brings difficulties to the credibility evaluation of the blue square model

[0004] The literature [Research on Credibility Quantification of Complex Simulation Systems] proposes a method for the quantification of trustworthiness of complex simulation systems, using fuzzy set theory to obtain evaluation opinions of underlying indicators, using rough set theory to deal with inconsistent evaluation opinions, and using evidence theory to combine evaluation opinions and evaluation indicators, but the underlying indicators of this quantitative method only consider expert experience and cannot effectively use the simulation output data. In addition, the weight information of each indicator is not considered when the evidence theory is used to combine evaluation opinions and evaluation indicators.

The literature [Creditability Verification Method of Combat Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Evidence Theory] uses evidence theory to verify the credibility of combat effectiveness evaluation. This method uses experts to judge the credibility of combat effectiveness evaluation indicators, and then uses evidence theory to conduct Index synthesis, the object of this method is the combat effectiveness evaluation index, which cannot be applied to the credibility evaluation of the simulation model

In addition, literature [Missile state assessment method based on improved evidence theory], [Air defense weapon system survivability assessment based on gray cloud and evidence theory], [Missile countermeasure defense radar operational effectiveness assessment method based on evidence theory], [Based on evidence theory C4ISR system effectiveness evaluation with cloud theory] and other literatures have discussed the application of evidence theory in evaluation, but most of the proposed schemes are directly based on expert experience scoring, which cannot effectively use the simulation output data

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