Multi-energy system comprehensive evaluation method and system based on sensitivity analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a multi-energy system comprehensive evaluation method and system based on sensitivity analysis, and the method comprises the steps: selecting system cost, economic operation and environmental influence as first-level indexes, and setting a plurality of second-level indexes for the first-level indexes; inspecting a plurality of secondary indexes by adopting a single-factor sensitivity analysis method, and obtaining sensitivity probability distribution of a plurality of secondary evaluation indexes by utilizing a Monte Carlo simulation method, so as to respectively obtain absolute comprehensive sensitivity factors of the three primary evaluation indexes; normalizing the absolute comprehensive sensitivity factors of the three first-level evaluation indexes, and obtaining the weight ratio of each first-level evaluation index; and constructing a composite evaluation index according to the weight ratio, and performing uncertainty comprehensive evaluation by using the composite evaluation index. According to the method, a complete multi-energy system comprehensive evaluation index system is formed, the life cycle cost of the multi-energy system can be effectively reduced, the energy-saving and environment-friendly benefits of the multi-energy system are improved, and the actual effect of the system is greatly improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of energy evaluation, in particular to a method and system for comprehensive evaluation of multi-energy systems based on sensitivity analysis. Background technique [0002] For the evaluation of multi-energy systems, the existing technologies have proposed relevant impact analysis and evaluation methods from different angles, but a unified evaluation index system has not yet been formed, and the following problems still remain: [0003] (1) In the existing multi-energy system evaluation methods, one or several indicators are generally selected as system evaluation elements, but the multi-energy system covers a wide range, and there are many factors affecting the system's energy efficiency, economy, and environmental protection. Some methods are not fully covered, and the evaluation system is not comprehensive enough; [0004] (2) Composite evaluation indicators are used in some multi-energy system evaluatio...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] (1) In the existing multi-energy system evaluation methods, one or several indicators are generally selected as system evaluation elements, but the multi-energy system covers a wide range, and there are many factors affecting the system's energy efficiency, economy, and environmental protection. Some methods are not fully covered, and the evaluation system is not comprehensive enough;

[0004] (2) Composite evaluation indicators are used in some multi-energy system evaluation methods, but the weight values ​​of each evaluation index are determined by hypothetical values ​​or simple qualitative analysis, and the comprehensive evaluation index cannot be determined in a qualitative and quantitative way weight value;

[0005] (3) In the domestic and foreign systematic norms and standards, the evaluation systems of "green building" and "energy-saving building" have some evaluations for energy systems, but they are still based on the building itself, and do not carry out evaluations for the relevant characteristics of multi-energy systems

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