A method for numerical simulation and hazard forecasting of the whole process of mountain disasters

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for numerical simulation and danger forecasting of the whole process of mountain disasters, comprising the following steps: S1: high-temporal and spatial rainfall forecast in mountainous areas; S2: hydrodynamic process and numerical simulation: establishing a hydrodynamic process model, and analyzing the hydrodynamic process model Solving; S3: Movement model and numerical simulation of mountain torrents and debris flow disasters; S4: Risk analysis and danger forecasting of small watershed disasters. The present invention realizes disaster hazard prediction and dynamic quantitative assessment of risk loss based on climate forecast result-driven disaster scenario simulation in the whole process, and upgrades current disaster level forecast to dangerous situation forecast, serving precise disaster prevention and precise rescue.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of numerical forecasting of mountain disasters, in particular to a method for numerical simulation and danger forecasting of the whole process of mountain disasters. Background technique [0002] Extreme weather and climate lead to frequent and frequent disasters in mountainous areas, resulting in continuous increase in direct economic losses from disasters. Intensified climate change has increased the risk of catastrophe and made prediction difficult. It is one of the major scientific and technological issues facing disaster prevention and mitigation. In the prior art, there are mainly following defects: [0003] 1. At present, the formation mechanism and evolution of typical single disasters are relatively mature. However, the understanding of the disaster formation mechanism and dynamic process mechanism of disasters under the influence of extreme weather and climate conditions, complex terrain in mountai...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] 2. The lack of physical models and computing platforms describing the whole process of disaster initiation-movement-accumulation in mountainous small watersheds limits the quantitative risk assessment and numerical prediction of small watershed disasters

[0008] 3. The single-factor risk assessment method in mountainous areas is relatively mature, but there is a lack of comprehensive research on the disaster-causing mechanism of the coupling process of water-soil-biology, which restricts the technical breakthrough of comprehensive risk understanding and quantitative assessment. It is urgent to carry out cross-scale multi-factor coupling. Quantitative assessment and mapping research of mountain risk

There are few studies on the microcosmic mechanism and disaster-causing effects of mountain ecology-hydrology-rock-soil processes, and the mountain risk evaluation index system is mostly based on background environmental factors such as topography, geology, soil, and multi-year rainfall. Steady-state and static indicators under such a long-term cycle cannot reflect the development trend and change process of mountain risk under climate change, which seriously restricts the theoretical and technological breakthroughs in the understanding and quantitative assessment of mountain risk

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