Medium- and long-term runoff ensemble forecast method and system based on rainfall forecast

Abstract

The invention provides a medium- and long-term runoff ensemble forecast method and system based on a rainfall forecast. The method comprises the following steps: constructing runoff ensemble forecast data of a target region according to a forecast period, historical runoff data and forecast factors corresponding to the historical runoff data, wherein rainfall factors in the forecast factors are obtained by correcting rainfall forecast data; and inputting the runoff ensemble forecast data into a trained runoff ensemble forecast model to obtain a medium- and long-term runoff ensemble forecast result of the target region, wherein the trained runoff ensemble forecast model is obtained by training a plurality of data-driven models based on sample runoff ensemble forecast data. According to the invention, the medium- and long-term runoff forecast precision and reliability are improved, and the problem that a traditional medium- and long-term runoff forecast method can only generate a deterministic runoff forecast result is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of mid- and long-term runoff forecasting, in particular to a medium- and long-term runoff ensemble forecast method and system based on rainfall forecasting. Background technique [0002] In recent years, due to the continuous increase of greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide caused by human activities, the global climate has been significantly affected. The global surface temperature is showing a warming trend as a whole, while the precipitation in different regions shows different trends. . Changing climate conditions have brought more uncertainty to the future water resources, while the demand for water resources from human activities continues to grow, which has brought great pressure to the comprehensive development and utilization of water resources. In this case, the medium- and long-term runoff forecast that can provide future runoff information can provide decision support for the comprehe...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, in this method, since the predictors used are all definite values, it usually produces deterministic forecast results, which cannot reflect the uncertainty of future runoff, and there is a greater risk in practical application

On the other hand, due to the lack of the key information of rainfall in the modeling process, there is a lack of information in the forecast, which will affect the accuracy of the forecast results

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