Underwater Christmas tree sea trial operation risk evaluation method

Abstract

The invention provides an underwater Christmas tree sea test operation risk evaluation method, which comprises the steps of S1, determining a basic event of a risk accident according to an underwater Christmas tree sea test operation program, and constructing a fault tree of underwater Christmas tree sea test operation; s2, evaluating the fault tree by adopting an expert scoring method, and performing fuzzification processing on an evaluation result to obtain a probability fuzzy number of the basic event; s3, calculating a fuzzy number according to the probability fuzzy number of the basic event, and calculating a failure probability of a top event of the fault tree according to the fuzzy number; and S4, carrying out sensitivity analysis on each basic event to obtain a critical importance coefficient and a probability importance coefficient of the basic event. According to the underwater Christmas tree sea test operation risk evaluation method, the evaluation result is closer to reality, more sufficient risk factor related data can be obtained, the method can be applied to underwater Christmas tree sea test operation risk evaluation, and the disadvantages of underwater Christmas tree sea test operation experience complementation in China can be complemented.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a risk assessment method for sea trial operation of an underwater Christmas tree. Background technique [0002] With the development of my country's offshore oil and gas exploration from shallow seas to deep seas, the demand for underwater Christmas trees has increased. In order to break through technology and reduce costs, breakthroughs have been made in the research and development of domestically produced underwater Christmas trees. However, due to the relatively small use of underwater Christmas trees in my country, the lack of experience in sea trial operation, and the lack of a more feasible risk assessment system for localized underwater Christmas tree sea trial operation, further improvement is needed. SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION [0003] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a risk evaluation method for underwater Christmas tree sea ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the relatively little use of subsea trees in my country and the lack of experience in sea trial operations, there is a lack of a more feasible risk assessment system for domestic subsea trees in sea trials, which needs further improvement

Images