Operation risk evaluation method comprising wind- power plant electric system

A power system and operation risk technology, applied in the field of risk assessment, can solve problems such as low probability, difficult to distinguish risk level, and proximity

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-08-14
ZHEJIANG UNIV +2
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Problems solved by technology

On the other hand, each state parameter and the corresponding risk level in the short calculation period of running risk assessment generally have the characteristics of low probability. In the traditional risk index system, the risk values ​​under the same low probability may be very close and it is difficult to distinguish risks. Level

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  • Operation risk evaluation method comprising wind- power plant electric system
  • Operation risk evaluation method comprising wind- power plant electric system
  • Operation risk evaluation method comprising wind- power plant electric system

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Embodiment Construction

[0040] In order to describe the present invention more specifically, the technical solutions of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0041] The evaluation object of this embodiment is the IEEE RTS79 system, and a wind farm with a penetration rate of 30% is designed to be connected to the system.

[0042] Such as figure 1 As shown, an operation risk assessment method for power systems with wind farms includes the following steps:

[0043] (1) According to the Markov chain theory and the normal distribution model, establish the probabilistic mathematical model M1 of wind farm power and the probabilistic mathematical model M2 of load power prediction.

[0044] In order to simplify the power system model including wind farms in this embodiment, the prototype system is divided into power supply side, grid side and load side, such as figure 2 As shown, outage model parameters are generate...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an operation risk evaluation method comprising a wind-power plant electric system. With view to affection on the electric system from a wind-power plant, the operation risk evaluation method traces back to nodes and includes that real-time importance degree weights of the nodes are introduced into risk indexes, affection of a network topology and real-time tide state information is comprehensively reflected, real-time risk variation of the electric system under the action of the wind-power plant can be truly reflected, updating of various state parameters and risk level sequence is completed in real time in a short calculation period of system running risk evaluation, the problem that operating monitoring of power plants or substation busses high in importance degree is ignored is avoided, value-at-risk is converted into a dimensionless utility value by evaluating a function through consequence severity of exponential risk-preferred utility function, the risk-at-value is increased at different degrees so as to increase risk level difference identification degree and differentiation degree under same low-loss-load probability and scientifically compare different risk levels.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of risk assessment, and in particular relates to an operation risk assessment method of a power system including a wind farm. Background technique [0002] As one of the most promising new energy sources, wind energy has natural volatility. The randomness, intermittency and uncontrollability of the output of wind turbines make the grid-connected wind turbines a highly random disturbance source on the power side. As large-scale wind power and other new energy sources are connected to the grid, the uncertainty of traditional power sources still exists. Therefore, the forced outage of traditional generating units and the operation risks of power generation systems cannot be ignored. Risk fluctuations in power frequency, power supply shortage, etc., will also have an impact on various state quantities in the power grid, such as node voltage, branch power, and operational backup risks. [0003] When wind power ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00G06Q50/06
Inventor 郭创新张理张金江董树锋张楷旋
Owner ZHEJIANG UNIV
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