6 results about "Forced outage" patented technology

The invention provides a method for predicting the lightning stroke fault probability of a power transmission line and evaluating the reliability of the power transmission line based on lightning weather information and a related device, and the method comprises the steps: preprocessing multi-source data (weather radar data, line parameters and topographic data), and outputting a standardized feature set; on the basis of the data set, the lightning current amplitude and distribution in the next one hour are predicted through a ConvLSTM model; determining discharge point coordinates by using amplitude distribution, and calculating a thunderbolt side distance; inputting the amplitude, the distance, the terrain and the line parameters into an XGBoost model, and outputting the section lightning stroke fault probability; and calculating the reliability indexes of the LOLP and the EENS by taking the probability as a forced outage probability and combining a Monte Carlo method. Through multi-source data fusion and space-time sequence modeling, the lightning stroke risk is accurately predicted, a scientific basis is provided for lightning protection design and operation and maintenance of a power system, and the operation reliability of a power grid is improved.

The invention discloses a forced shutdown and station service power equivalent capacity evaluation method. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring original load data, setting power consumption simulation times, obtaining a probability density function through the original load data and the power consumption simulation times, and taking a random number of the probability density function as a response degree; calculating a demand response capacity and a response load curve according to the response degree, and judging whether a set power consumption simulation frequency is reached or not; when the set electricity consumption simulation times are reached, the demand response capacity and the response load curve are used as random samples, the demand response capacity confidence interval is calculated, the calculation result is output, the interval evaluation index of the load curve after response is obtained through interval number operation, and a reference basis is provided for more scientifically evaluating the demand response effect.

The present invention relates to a quotation method for maximizing the benefit of a coal-fired unit on an electricity spot market. The technical solution is as follows: obtaining, by means of calculation, a fuel cost C1 of a unit, a start cost (comprising a fuel consumption fee C2 for starting and a maintenance fee C3 related to the starting of the unit), an opportunity cost C4 caused by an increase in an equivalent forced outage rate, and a fixed cost C5; and on the basis of the cost components of the unit, using a cost-plus pricing method to perform on-grid quotation. A variable cost and the fixed cost of the unit are comprehensively taken into consideration, such that the cost analysis is more comprehensive; and in view of routine thermal performance test results of the unit, by taking factors such as normal aging of the unit, a thermodynamic device defect and an operation parameter deviation into consideration, and on the basis of D+1 load scheduling, fuel costs of the unit under different loads can be known in advance.

The present disclosure relates to the technical field of power calculation, and provides a capacity demand curve calculation method, device, medium and equipment, which comprises the following steps: obtaining unit parameters of a thermal power unit set and time-series net load data in a target time period; the thermal power unit set comprises multiple thermal power units, and the unit parameters comprise unit installed capacity, equivalent forced outage rate and operation cost of each thermal power unit; calculating semi-invariants of available capacity of each thermal power unit based on a semi-invariant formula and the unit installed capacity, equivalent forced outage rate and operation cost of each thermal power unit; calculating capacity demand curve values of each installed capacity based on the time-series net load data, the unit installed capacity and the semi-invariants of available capacity of each thermal power unit; and further determining a capacity demand curve in the target time period. The semi-invariants of available capacity of the thermal power unit are calculated by the semi-invariant formula, and then the capacity demand curve values of each installed capacity are calculated, thereby improving the calculation accuracy of the capacity demand curve.

The application discloses a power system time-sharing reliability calculation method and system based on medium and long term balance analysis, comprising: obtaining conventional unit installed capacity, forced outage rate and hourly start-stop plan, and simultaneously obtaining hourly load and new energy predicted output; determining the conventional unit in operation, and then performing convolution operation to obtain the available capacity distribution of the conventional unit in the period; sequentially performing joint convolution of the output of each state new energy and the available capacity distribution of the conventional unit in each hour, to form the probability distribution of the total available capacity of the system in the period; comparing the total available capacity probability distribution of each period with the load demand in the period, and calculating the expected value of LOLP and EENS in the period according to the probability of each new energy output state, to realize hourly evaluation. The application can integrate the time-varying start mode of the conventional unit, fully reflect the uncertainty of the new energy, make the reliability evaluation more close to the actual dispatching logic of the power system, and realize time sequence dynamic evaluation of the power supply reliability of the system.

The invention discloses a load removal method and device under a cascading failure of a power system, electronic equipment and a storage medium, and belongs to the technical field of line failure removal, and the method comprises the steps: generating a plurality of outer-layer source load fluctuation scenes containing node load power and wind power plant output; in each outer-layer source load fluctuation scene, obtaining a random fault state of each element according to a forced outage rate of each element, and according to the random fault state and a reference operation state of the generator, taking the full-load cost of a power generation node and the minimum generator abandoning penalty as targets; constructing a target function of a corresponding load removal strategy and a corresponding constraint condition; and solving the target function under the constraint condition, and performing load removal according to a corresponding load removal strategy when the full-load cost of the power generation node and the generator abandoning penalty are minimum, so that the problem that the load removal cannot be realized under the cascading failure of the power system in the prior art can be solved.