Method and system for calculating reliability of power system containing wind power plant

Abstract

The invention provides a method and a system for calculating the reliability of a power system containing a wind power plant. The method comprises the steps of predicting a load curve of the power system, determining a scheduling period of the power system, performing production simulation and determining a thermal power generating unit startup mode; predicting wind speed information in the wind power plant, determining wind power, and calculating a net value of a load machine and a wind curtailment rate according to the determined starting mode of the thermal power generating unit; establishing a wind power prediction value load machine net value wind curtailment rate curve according to the production simulation, the thermal power generating unit starting mode, the load machine net valueand the wind power; and according to the statistical result and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit, performing sequential convolution according to the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit and the wind power prediction value load machine net value wind curtailment rate curve, establishing an equivalent wind power prediction value load machine net value wind curtailment rate curve, and obtaining the system reliability through calculation. The calculation process is simple, and the calculation result is accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The disclosure belongs to the technical field of power system operation optimization, and relates to a method and system for calculating the reliability of a power system including a wind farm. Background technique [0002] The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present disclosure and do not necessarily constitute prior art. [0003] With the increase of wind power installed capacity, people pay more and more attention to the reliability of the power system including wind farms. From a national perspective, when evaluating the reliability of the power system including wind farms, the thermal power reserve capacity is used to stabilize the fluctuation and randomness of wind power output and the random failure of the unit; The reliability of the power system including wind farms with random faults and the optimization of the thermal reserve capacity of thermal power units are of great significance to the safe...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, the current high wind curtailment rate directly affects the economic benefits of wind farms and prolongs the cost recovery period of wind farms; at the same time, it also increases the carbon emissions per unit of electricity in the power system; more importantly, the thermal power units in the current power system The start-up capacity has not been coordinated with wind power and system unit failures, which also limits the optimal calculation of thermal power unit start-up methods and power generation

[0005] Therefore, the overall calculation of the reliability of the power system including wind farms is particularly important in the process of increasing the grid-connected electricity of wind farms and reducing carbon emissions of the power system; and at present, the method of increasing the thermal reserve capacity of thermal power units is often used to stabilize wind power fluctuations and randomness. It pessimistically evaluates the reliability of the system and increases the carbon emissions per unit of electricity in the power system; at the same time, the current method does not perform sequential convolution on the output of wind power and the output of thermal power units, and cannot evaluate the volatility of wind power output in reliability calculations and randomness, cannot fully reflect the reliability of the power system including wind farms

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