Wind power plant reliability modeling method with weather conditions taken into account

A modeling method and wind farm technology, applied in the direction of instrument, data processing application, calculation, etc., can solve the problem of not considering the influence and error of wind turbine outage

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-08-06
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The existing literature has the following defects in the consideration of weather conditions when modeling the reliability of wind farms: (1) When considering the random outage of wind turbines, a fixed forced outage rate of wind turbines is often used. The uniform use of a fixed wind turbine forced outage rate modeling method due to weather conditions will lead to large errors; (2) it is often assumed that all wind turbines in the wind farm are independent of each other, and the independent outage model is adopted without considering Influence of common cause outage of wind turbines in bad weather

Method used

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  • Wind power plant reliability modeling method with weather conditions taken into account
  • Wind power plant reliability modeling method with weather conditions taken into account
  • Wind power plant reliability modeling method with weather conditions taken into account

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Experimental program
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Effect test

specific Embodiment 1

[0094] Step B-1: Generate a sample Y of independent standard normally distributed variables Y s , Y s The dimension is N WF ×T, where T represents the hours of simulated wind speed.

[0095] Step B-2: According to the Weibull distribution scale parameters and shape parameters of the wind speed of each wind farm, calculate the expectation and standard deviation of the wind speed of each wind farm, where the expected wind speed of the i-th wind farm μ i and standard deviation σ i The calculation formula is:

[0096] μ i = c i Γ ( 1 + 1 k i )

[0097] σ i = c i 2 Γ ( 1 + ...

specific Embodiment 2

[0110] Step B-1: Generate a T-dimensional (where T represents the simulated wind speed in hours) random number sequence R uniformly distributed between [0,1] i .

[0111] Step B-2: Generate the wind speed of each wind farm that has no correlation characteristics and obeys the Weibull distribution; where the wind speed sequence v of the i-th wind farm i The calculation formula is

[0112] v i = c i [ - 1 n ( 1 - R i ) ] 1 / k i

[0113] Step B-3: For the wind velocity vector generated in Step B-2 Standardize to obtain the standardized wind speed vector z, t...

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Abstract

The invention provides a wind power plant reliability modeling method with weather conditions taken into account. The method comprises the steps of initializing parameters, generating an hourly wind speed sequence of all wind power plants, calculating an hourly output power sequence during normal operation of all wind generation sets in each wind power plant, generating an hourly weather condition sequence of each wind power plant, generating an hourly operation state sequence of all the wind generation sets in each wind power plant, generating an hourly output power sequence of all the wind generation sets in each wind power plant, generating an hourly output power sequence of all the wind power plants, and establishing a multi-state model of all the wind power plants. Due to the fact that factors such as the correlation of the weather conditions of the multiple wind power plants, the influence of the weather conditions on the forced outage rate of the wind power plants and the related outage of the wind power plants under poor weather conditions are taken in account at the same time, the wind power plant model established through the method meets practical situations better.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system modeling, and in particular relates to a wind farm reliability modeling method considering weather. Background technique [0002] As an energy-saving and environmentally friendly new energy source, wind energy has received extensive attention worldwide. With the development of the world economy, the wind power industry has developed rapidly in recent years. Wind energy has the characteristics of volatility and intermittency, and at the same time, the outage of wind turbines is also random, which makes the output power of wind farms a random variable. Due to the uncertainty and unschedulability of wind farm output power, large-scale wind power grid connection may have a certain impact on the safe and stable operation of the power system. Provide reference for the formulation of the system operation plan after the wind power is connected with the dispatcher. [0003] Power system components o...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈凡卫志农孙国强孙永辉杨雄袁阳陆子刚张伟刘玉娟潘春兰
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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