Method for evaluating power distribution network electrical equipment state based on historical data trend prediction

Abstract

A method for evaluating the power distribution network electrical equipment state based on historical data trend prediction comprises the following steps: at first, performing the longitudinal historical data evaluation on electric equipment state quantity data, and correcting bad data or wrong data through smoothing; then, dividing the data into two types to be processed according to the state quantity data dispersion degree; for the data with smaller dispersion degree, considering the mathematical expectation of historical data as current data quantity data; for the data with larger dispersion degree, adopting a grey prediction method to obtain the predicted value of the state quantity data of the current time node, and finally adopting a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process to evaluate the power distribution network electrical equipment state. The state quantity data of the current time node is predicted according to the development tendency of the state quantity historical data, data is guaranteed to reflect the state of the current equipment effectively, and the credibility of the data quantity data is improved, so that the accuracy of the state evaluation result of the power distribution equipment is ensured finally.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for accurately evaluating the state of electrical equipment in a distribution network, and belongs to the technical field of data processing. Background technique [0002] The distribution network is one of the main components of the power system, and its safe and reliable operation is closely related to the national economy and people's lives. The reliability of the distribution equipment in the distribution network is the basis for ensuring the reliable operation of the distribution network. Therefore, to improve the reliability of the distribution network should first start with improving the reliability of the distribution equipment. Carrying out the status assessment of power distribution equipment is one of the effective measures to improve the reliability of power distribution equipment operation. Accurate assessment of the status of power distribution equipment is not only conducive to improving the efficiency ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This evaluation method has the following two problems: First, due to the long interval between the test and inspection of the power distribution equipment, the latest test and inspection may be far from the current time node, and its state quantity data cannot fully reflect the distribution network. The current state of the equipment; second, this method only uses the latest state quantity data, ignoring the role of historical data (the so-called historical data refers to the accumulated state during the period from the end of the last equipment condition inspection to the current state assessment. Multiple data of the same state quantity)

The state quantity data recorded due to a test or operation tour is accidental, and there may be test errors or recording errors, which affect the accuracy of the equipment state evaluation results

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