Multi-variable flood recurrence period calculating method considering reservoir flood routing calculation

A flood control calculation and return period technology, applied in water conservancy engineering, hydraulic engineering equipment, construction, etc., can solve the problem of not considering the flood control calculation of the reservoir, and unable to correctly characterize the hydrological failure mechanism of the reservoir dam.

Active Publication Date: 2016-08-24
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Therefore, the existing multivariate return period calculation method does not take into account the flood regulation

Method used

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  • Multi-variable flood recurrence period calculating method considering reservoir flood routing calculation
  • Multi-variable flood recurrence period calculating method considering reservoir flood routing calculation
  • Multi-variable flood recurrence period calculating method considering reservoir flood routing calculation

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Embodiment Construction

[0025] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0026] Such as Figure 1-Figure 3 As shown, a multi-variable flood return period calculation method considering reservoir flood regulation calculation method collects the maximum flood process data and flood peak and flood volume series of the reservoir over the years, and inputs the reservoir to carry out flood regulation calculation statistics according to the regulation rules to obtain the annual maximum water level series. Using genetic programming to perform symbolic regression to deduce the explicit expression of the flood control function of the reservoir, and use the Copula function to solve the joint probability density function, and then integrate the joint probability density function in the safe area to obtain the cumulative probability of the highest water level in the specified year , so as to calculate the univariate return period of the maximum water le...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a multi-variable flood recurrence period calculating method considering reservoir flood routing calculation. The method is characterized in that symbolic regression is carried out to calculate an explicit representation through genetic programming; a joint probability density function is calculated through a Copula function; then the joint probability density function is subjected to integral operation in a safe area to obtain cumulative probability of the specified annular maximum water level, and finally single-variable recurrence period of the specified annular maximum water level can be calculated as the multi-variable flood recurrence period under the consideration of the reservoir flood routing calculation. According to the method, the reservoir flood routing calculation is considered; a dangerous area is defined based on the annular maximum water level isoline, and thus the hydrological failure mechanism of a reservoir dam can be accurately expressed; the method is applicable to flood dispatching rules at any complexity degree, and scientific and reasonable basis can be provided to the flood control safety design of a reservoir.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of flood control safety, in particular to a multivariable flood return period calculation method considering reservoir flood control calculation. Background technique [0002] Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. How to carry out scientific and effective flood risk management to reduce losses is of great significance. Flood return period refers to the average time interval (in years) between two consecutive flood events of a certain magnitude. A Calculation Method for Design Flood Downstream of Cascade Reservoirs, Patent No. ZL2013101982328). The traditional flood return period is often calculated based on a single variable frequency based on a certain characteristic variable (flood peak or flood volume in a certain period of time). However, the essence of a flood event is a multivariate stochastic hydrological event, which requires multiple characteristic variables to ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): E02B1/00
CPCE02B1/00
Inventor 郭生练刘章君李立平尹家波杨光
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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