Power utilization demand analysis prediction method taking business-expansion installation data into consideration

A technology that expands equipment and electricity demand, and is applied in data processing applications, forecasting, instruments, etc., to achieve the effect of accurate electricity forecasting.

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-02-22
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, at present, the main focus of relevant research on industry expansion and reporting is the formulation of policies and the improvement of management systems. There are few in-depth studies on measurement technology, mathematical models,

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  • Power utilization demand analysis prediction method taking business-expansion installation data into consideration
  • Power utilization demand analysis prediction method taking business-expansion installation data into consideration
  • Power utilization demand analysis prediction method taking business-expansion installation data into consideration

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Embodiment Construction

[0034] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0035] Characteristics:

[0036] 1) The number of new users and the capacity of new electrical equipment. The number of new additions and its proportion to the total number indicate the growth momentum of the electricity sales market in the future, and also reflect the effect of the marketing department's market development to a certain extent.

[0037] Indicator 1: Percentage of new additions UR = new additions / total new additions (1.1)

[0038] Indicator 2: New capacity growth rate CR = new equipment capacity / total capacity (1.2)

[0039] Indicator 3: Newly reduced capacity growth rate DR = newly reduced equipment capacity / total capacity (1.3)

[0040] Indicator 4: The month-on-month growth rate of new capacity CGR = (new equipment capacity - last year's new equipment capacity) / last year's new equipment capacity (1.4)

[0041] Indicator 5: New...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power utilization demand analysis prediction method taking business-expansion installation data into consideration. The method comprises that the amount of newly added users and capacities of newly added power utilization equipment are determined; the growth rate and the comparative growth rate of capacity are calculated; an S-type growth curve is used to construct power utilization trend after business-expansion installation, a principle component analysis method is used to a business-expansion power utilization growth curve, and the curve is interpreted stage by stage by taking the instant growth rate as a basic value and an inflection point as an identification basis; the power utilization amount and business-expansion installation are converted, a Census X12 algorithm is used to decompose an interpretation variable and a dependent variable seasonally, and an original variable is decomposed into a trend circulation item (TC), a seasonal factor (SF) and a random item (IR); and the correlation between variable trend items is analyzed, linear regression is carried out, and a prediction value of power utilization amount is confirmed after the seasonal factors are considered. The relation between the quantified capacity release rule and the installation capacity/power utilization amount can be obtained, and the power utilization amount can be predetermined accurately.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for analyzing and predicting electricity demand considering the data of business expansion report and installation. Background technique [0002] Due to the influence of national policies, production costs, sales conditions, market prospects, and business expansion trends, it is impossible to make accurate predictions and judgments on the new capacity, electricity, and load of business expansion. Since business expansion and new installations take a long time, it is impossible to accurately grasp the release law of new capacity, the law of power growth point and when the power will reach the normal level, the impact of capacity growth on the province's power, etc. That is to say, the growth of the actual electricity sales of power grid companies often lags behind the growth of business expansion and installation, and the newly added installation capacity will not be 100% converted into the growth of electricity sales. ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 程婷婷刘勇超杜颖李军田刘宏国田晓
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY
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