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Photovoltaic power generation probability model establishing method for medium-and-long-timescale grid analysis

A long-term scale, photovoltaic power generation technology, applied in data processing applications, instruments, information technology support systems, etc., can solve problems such as lack of photovoltaic power generation models

Active Publication Date: 2017-04-05
SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0010] At present, there is still a lack of photovoltaic power generation models with the above-mentioned complete characteristics in the research on distribution networks containing photovoltaic power generation.

Method used

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  • Photovoltaic power generation probability model establishing method for medium-and-long-timescale grid analysis
  • Photovoltaic power generation probability model establishing method for medium-and-long-timescale grid analysis
  • Photovoltaic power generation probability model establishing method for medium-and-long-timescale grid analysis

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Embodiment

[0056] The models of photovoltaic power sources in power system analysis can be divided into two categories. One type directly counts and establishes the probability distribution of the output power of photovoltaic power sources, which can be called the direct model. The other type is to first establish the probability distribution of solar irradiance reflecting the characteristics of solar radiation, and then further calculate the power of photovoltaic power generation based on solar radiation, which is called an indirect model.

[0057] The direct model is more suitable for the modeling of photovoltaic power plants that have been put into operation in the field of operation scheduling, because its historical power records can be easily obtained and analyzed. For the field of planning or theoretical research, it is often difficult to obtain the statistical data of similar photovoltaic power plants, while the historical sunshine records of an area are easier to obtain from mete...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power generation probability model establishing method for a medium-and-long-timescale grid analysis. The method comprises: S10, establishing a discrete probability time sequence model for describing changing of a mean value of solar irradiance per hour at a designated date; S20, establishing a continuous probability density model for describing stochastic volatility of solar irradiance around the per-hour mean value in each hour; and S30, on the basis of solar irradiance samples of the discrete probability time sequence model and the continuous probability density model at any designated time, establishing a photovoltaic power model of a photovoltaic power source. The method has the following advantages: the photovoltaic probability model established by the method covers the long time operation process; a few of parameters are involved and dependence on historical data is low; and the internal correlation, generated by territories and scheduling rules, between the photovoltaic power source and between the photovoltaic unit and the load can be reflected effectively.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid planning, in particular to a modeling method for a photovoltaic power generation probability model suitable for medium and long-term scale power grid analysis. Background technique [0002] Under the pressure of increasing shortage of fossil energy and environmental protection, large-scale utilization of renewable energy such as wind energy and solar energy has become an inevitable trend of world energy development. At the current stage, further improving the comprehensive utilization efficiency of energy, strengthening the development and utilization of renewable energy, and adjusting the energy structure are important ways to solve many problems between energy demand and supply, economy and environment in the current economic and social development of our country. At the same time, it has important security and strategic significance. Sustainable energy is the basis for sustainable economic ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/063G06Q50/06Y02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 吕耀棠管霖陈旭赵琦
Owner SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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