Load prediction method based on total power of household average equipment and occupancy coefficient

Abstract

The invention belongs to the electric power system load prediction field and especially relates to a load prediction method based on total power of household average equipment and an occupancy coefficient. In the load prediction method based on the total power of household average equipment and the occupancy coefficient, a statistics analysis method is adopted; power utilization models of different residents under different total power of electric equipment are acquired from power utilization data of limited residents in a typical region; and then through the total power of electric equipment of overall users in a region to be predicted and a phase development condition, an electrical load in the region is accurately and effectively calculated. Efficiency and effectiveness of electrical load calculation are increased, which is good for a design and maintenance of a power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system load forecasting, in particular to a load forecasting method based on the total power of equipment per household and occupancy coefficient. Background technique [0002] As an important part of power system planning and design, load forecasting for power consumption areas and power supply areas is an important means to improve the security and economy of the power grid system. Load forecasting starts from actual needs and makes predictions for future regional power consumption and power supply loads. Reasonable forecast, which involves various forecasts of future demand for electricity and future electricity consumption. Then, according to the results of load forecasting, a reasonable arrangement is made for the allocation of power resources, the planning of power usage, and the operation mode and maintenance plan of the power system. Therefore, the national code has formulated the "Electrical Code fo...

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Problems solved by technology

Therefore, the national code has formulated the "Electrical Code for Civil Buildings" according to actual needs, and the power system has also issued the "Distribution Network Planning and Design Manual" and other planning and design standards. electricity regions can make better load forecasts

However, due to the rapid development of people's living standards, the above-mentioned standard basis is difficult to take into account the uncertain factors brought about by economic development, climate change, and regional development. Good forecasting and planning, so better forecasting methods are needed to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of power system load forecasting

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