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Failure risk rate calculation method and device based on dam failure function models

A technology of functional functions and calculation methods, applied in the fields of calculation, electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as difficulty in reflecting the real situation of limit state surfaces, high degree of nonlinearity, influence of failure probability and accuracy, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-01-09
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology

However, for projects like dams, the limit state function function has a high degree of nonlinearity. In terms of the determination of the function form and the extraction of test sample points, the response surface model has certain deficiencies, and it is difficult to reflect the real situation of the limit state surface. , the failure probability accuracy will be greatly affected by

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  • Failure risk rate calculation method and device based on dam failure function models
  • Failure risk rate calculation method and device based on dam failure function models
  • Failure risk rate calculation method and device based on dam failure function models

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Embodiment Construction

[0062] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0063] In the process of implementing the embodiment of the present invention, the inventors found that the limit state of the dam in the prior art is generally described by a functional function, and the functional function is usually defined as:

[0064] g(X)=g(x 1 ,x 2 ,...,x n )

[0065] In the formula, X=(x 1 ,x 2 ,...,x n ) is a vector; x i (i=1,2,...,n) are the basic variables acting on the dam, for example

[0066] Basic variables such as load ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a failure risk rate calculation method and device based on dam failure function models, and relates to the technical field of dam safety risk detection. The method comprises thesteps that basic variable training samples of a plurality of groups of dams are acquired; the dam failure function models are reconstructed by using a kriging model, and a correlation function is generated, wherein the correlation function is used for describing spatial correlation among all the basic variable training samples affecting the safety of the dams, and the correlation function comprises a to-be-optimized parameter; an optimization value of the to-be-optimized parameter is determined according to the maximum likelihood estimation method; according to the optimization value of the to-be-optimized parameter, the value of the correlation function is determined, and the dam failure function models corresponding to the basic variable training samples are determined according to a random process function condition; validity check is conducted on the dam failure function models corresponding to each group of basic variable training samples, and the optimal dam failure function model is selected; the dam failure risk rate is determined according to the optimal dam failure function model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of dam safety risk detection, in particular to a method and device for calculating a failure risk rate based on a dam failure function function model. Background technique [0002] Due to the large number of rivers and abundant water energy resources in our country, a large number of river dams have been built in our country. Dams play an important role in areas such as hydroelectric power generation. However, due to the rapid construction and development of the dam, due to design standards, engineering quality and other issues, there are certain safety accidents in the dam. Therefore, scientific safety risk analysis and management of the dam can effectively guarantee its safe operation and reduce the occurrence of safety accidents. The quantitative analysis of the dam failure risk rate is an important part of risk management. The calculation of the dam risk rate is mainly to establish a risk model for dif...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 郑雪琴王勇桂中华杜雅楠李佳霖
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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