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Multi-model landslide displacement prediction method and system

A forecasting method and forecasting system technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as difficulty in determining the weight of combined forecasting models, low accuracy of single-model forecasting, etc., to achieve low accuracy , improve precision, improve the effect of accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2018-03-13
CENT SOUTH UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a multi-model landslide displacement prediction method and its system to solve the problems that the traditional single-model prediction accuracy is not high and the weight of the combined prediction model is difficult to determine

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  • Multi-model landslide displacement prediction method and system
  • Multi-model landslide displacement prediction method and system
  • Multi-model landslide displacement prediction method and system

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Embodiment Construction

[0022] The embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings, but the present invention can be implemented in many different ways defined and covered by the claims.

[0023] see figure 1 , the present invention at first provides a kind of multi-model landslide displacement prediction method, comprises the following steps:

[0024] S1: Obtain the monitoring data of landslide displacement, and process the monitoring data at equal time intervals to obtain the first displacement time series of the landslide.

[0025] The landslide displacement is not a uniformly changing value, so the monitoring data is processed at equal time intervals to obtain the displacement sequence of a certain landslide point (T 1 ,D 1 ),(T 2 ,D 2 ),...,(T i ,D i ),...,(T n ,D n ), where D i means T i The actual monitoring displacement value at any time, i=1,2,...,n.

[0026] S2: Select multiple displacement prediction models to pr...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a multi-model landslide displacement prediction method and system, and aims to solve the problems of low accuracy of conventional single-model prediction and difficulty in determining a weight of a combination prediction model. The method comprises the following steps of obtaining landslide displacement monitoring data, and performing equal-time-interval processing on the monitoring data to obtain a displacement time sequence of a landslide; selecting multiple displacement prediction models to predict landslide displacement in a time range corresponding to the displacement time sequence to obtain a predicted displacement time sequence; through the predicted displacement time sequence and the displacement time sequence, obtaining a prediction model accuracy matrix, and according to the prediction model accuracy matrix, determining a prediction model weight matrix; and obtaining a final predicted displacement result in combination with the prediction model weightmatrix according to displacement data predicted by the selected displacement prediction models.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of landslide displacement prediction, in particular to a multi-model landslide displacement prediction method and system thereof. Background technique [0002] Landslide is a frequent geological disaster, which not only destroys local resources and environment, but also seriously threatens the safety of human life and property. The geological tectonic activities in western my country are intense, and there are many types of geological disasters, especially landslides. According to statistics, an average of 700 to 900 people die every year in my country due to landslide disasters, and the direct economic loss is hundreds of billions of yuan. In order to effectively reduce the catastrophe caused by landslides, it is particularly important to monitor and predict landslide displacement. Since landslides are very complex nonlinear dynamic systems accompanied by many uncertain factors, accurate prediction of landslides ha...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 王卫东瞿霞刘攀杜香刚
Owner CENT SOUTH UNIV
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