Electricity purchasing and selling business decision making and risk evaluation method for power selling company

A risk assessment and business technology, applied in market forecasting, instruments, data processing applications, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-04-10
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING) +1
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, the existing patent research only considers the risk decision-making problem of electricity purchase and sale under a relatively single business model of electricity purchase and sale. Bus

Method used

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  • Electricity purchasing and selling business decision making and risk evaluation method for power selling company
  • Electricity purchasing and selling business decision making and risk evaluation method for power selling company
  • Electricity purchasing and selling business decision making and risk evaluation method for power selling company

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Embodiment 1

[0141] In this embodiment, 30 days is used as the planning cycle (the basic time period is 1 hour, with a total of 720 segments), and 12 sets of spot prices and load demand scenarios are simulated. Assume that in each type of user, the proportion of the electricity demand of each user group to the total electricity demand of this type of user remains unchanged at each time period, and assume that the probability of occurrence of each spot price scenario and the corresponding load demand scenario is 1 / 12 , the expected average spot price is 28.03$ / MWh, then the price quota curves of various users are as follows Figure 4 As shown, the types of medium and long-term contracts with definite output available include: power purchase contracts during peak periods, power purchase contracts during normal periods, and power purchase contracts during off-peak periods. image 3 The middle and valley periods are 1-8, the normal period is 9-16, and the peak period is 17-24. In a planning c...

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Abstract

The invention discloses electricity purchasing and selling business decision making and risk evaluation method for a power selling company, and belongs to the technical field of electricity purchasingand selling electricity on markets. The method includes the steps of classifying and modeling the electricity purchasing and selling business of the electricity selling company under a long-term on-hand stock market mode to obtain a comprehensive electricity purchasing and selling business combination model, adopting a scene method to simulate random variables in the model, establishing a comprehensive decision making and risk assessment mixed integer optimization model by taking the expected income as the income index of the electricity selling company, and the condition risk profit as the evaluation indexes of the risk, analyzing the risk and the profit of the electricity selling company in different electricity purchasing and selling business combination modes. The method can be used to conveniently, fast and effectively analyzing the risk and the profit of an electricity selling company in different electricity purchasing and selling combined modes, and helps the electricity selling company conduct risk assessment and risk decision making. A power purchasing and selling decision making and risk assessment reference is provided for electricity selling companies of various electricity purchasing and selling business combination modes.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electricity purchase and sale in the electric power market, and in particular relates to a decision-making and risk assessment method for electricity purchase and sale business of an electricity sale company. Background technique [0002] In order to break the monopoly of the power industry and establish a competitive power market, my country's power market has been gradually reformed to open up the electricity sales business to social capital, and the reform of the electricity sales side to cultivate competitors in the electricity sales side market through multiple channels has become one of the key tasks for promoting the reform of the power system in the near future. one. With the rapid development of new energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy, and distributed power, and the continuous enrichment of the power structure, the demand for electricity on the user side is increasingly diverse, and t...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q30/02G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/063G06Q10/0635G06Q30/0206G06Q50/06
Inventor 张粒子王林炎刘嵘蒋燕李秀峰段平生何金定剡文林吴洋杨永强周彬彬赵珍玉蔡建章尹成全栾毅
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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