A water resource shortage risk analysis method and system based on evidence reasoning

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of data acquisition and recording, and discloses a water resource shortage risk analysis method and system based on evidence reasoning. The water resource shortage risk analysis method based on evidence reasoning includes: decomposing the general goal, establishing a general The hierarchical structure model of the target; the attribute value of the calculation unit; the determination of the risk degree of the calculation unit by using evidence reasoning method. The present invention utilizes the method of D-S evidence reasoning to evaluate the risk of water resource shortage in multiple regions, and obtains the ranking of the risk degree of water resource shortage in each region, which is consistent with the actual situation and shows that the evidence theory is used to evaluate the water resources in each region. Evaluation of shortage risk degree has validity and application value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of data acquisition and recording, and in particular relates to a water resource shortage risk analysis method and system based on evidence reasoning. Background technique [0002] At present, the existing technologies commonly used in the industry are as follows: The risk of water shortage mainly depends on whether the supply and demand of the water resource system can reach a balance. The supply of water resources is affected by factors such as precipitation, water production and confluence, water storage projects, and transportation routes; while the demand is affected by factors such as the water-saving level and water-saving awareness of water users. There are many factors that affect the risk of water shortages. And the acquisition of many information has certain uncertainty, which is a typical multi-objective decision-making problem with uncertainty and incomplete information. Regional water resourc...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although these methods can better deal with the ambiguity in the regional water shortage risk assessment, they cannot accurately describe the uncertainty in the risk.

[0003] In summary, the problem of prior art is that : The shortage of water resources is determined by both supply and demand. It is affected by factors such as rainfall intensity and its temporal and spatial distribution, underlying surface conditions, water resource engineering, water resource operation scheduling, and human activities. Uncertainty factors lead to uncertainties in indicators measuring water shortage risk characteristics, such as flow-frequency relationship, water shortage-loss relationship, etc.

Uncertainty in risk cannot be accurately described

Images