A hydrological ensemble forecasting post-processing method

An ensemble forecast and post-processing technology, applied in the field of data processing, can solve problems such as forecast errors and achieve the effect of accurate forecast results

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-02-12
BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY +1
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However, when comparing several years of historical actual flow data with the data

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  • A hydrological ensemble forecasting post-processing method
  • A hydrological ensemble forecasting post-processing method
  • A hydrological ensemble forecasting post-processing method

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[0031] A preferred embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0032] When doing hydrological forecasting, we must quantify the random uncertainty and reduce the cognitive uncertainty. The hydrometeorological forecast postprocessor uses statistical methods to achieve this goal. The principle is to combine the hydrometeorological elements output by the direct model with the A robust statistical model is built between corresponding observations. Once the statistical model is established, given a hydrometeorological forecast within a certain forecast space-time range, the conditional probability distribution of the observed values ​​obtained by the statistical model is a post-processed hydrometeorological probability forecast.

[0033] Statistical post-processing methods have long been widely used in weather forecasting (Glahn et al., 2008), and Klein et al. (1959) proposed the Perfect Prognosis (Perfect Prognosis, of...

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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a hydrological ensemble forecasting post-processing method, comprising the following steps of: solving a probability density function to obtain a total linearpost-processing model GLMPP; obtaining the historical observation flow, the historical model simulating flow and the model forecasting flow; obtaining a total linear post-processing model GLMPP, whenthe probability density function obeys Gaussian normal distribution, and obtaining the future observed flow Qo, f in the forecast period by using the bus model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of data processing, in particular to a post-processing method for hydrological ensemble forecasting in mainland China. Background technique [0002] With the development of society, more and more fields are beginning to use data analysis and data processing technology. Hydrological data is one of the main data of rivers, and as accurate as possible predetermined hydrological data, especially flow, can provide a good reference for upstream and downstream flow control. [0003] In the prior art, three models, DTVGM model, Btop model, and SWAT model, are mainly used to simulate traffic data so as to predict future traffic. However, when comparing several years of historical actual flow data with model simulated data, it can be found that there are some errors in the prediction. Contents of the invention [0004] Aiming at the problem of errors in the current flow forecast, the embodiment of the present inve...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/18G06F17/16
CPCG06F17/18G06F17/16
Inventor 王国强王溥泽姚继平韩子叻朱虹霖
Owner BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY
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