Method and system for predicting monthly prices of grapes

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a method and system for predicting the monthly price of grapes in China. The method comprises the steps that original data of the monthly wholesale price of grapes are acquired; the original data is input into a pre-constructed combined prediction model to obtain predicted price data based on the original data; wherein the combined prediction model is constructed by adopting an ensemble empirical mode decomposition algorithm and combining with a support vector machine and multivariate linear regression based on original data of the grape monthly wholesale price. According to the embodiment of the invention, the original price data is input into the pre-constructed combined prediction model to obtain the predicted price data; an ensemble empirical mode decomposition algorithm is applied, model combination is carried out on the basis of a support vector machine and multiple linear regression, further accurate prediction is facilitated, finally, aprediction result is summarized and obtained through an addition fusion process, and the prediction problems that an original sequence is irregular and large in fluctuation are effectively solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of agricultural development and economic research, in particular to a method and system for forecasting the monthly price of grapes. Background technique [0002] my country is a big country in grape planting and production, and grape planting areas are widely distributed in my country. In recent years, the grape planting area has continued to expand, and the output has also increased year after year. As of 2016, my country's total grape planting area is about 843.41 thousand hectares, with a total output of 14.84 million tons. my country's grape planting industry is developing rapidly. In 2016, my country's grape production ranked first in the world. [0003] According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, my country's fruit production price index has a large inter-annual change and has experienced continuous decline in 2015 and 2016. As one of the representative bulk fruit varieties, table gra...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method and system for forecasting the monthly price of grapes, which is used to solve the limitations of single model and low accuracy in the prior art, and it is difficult to meet the needs of forecasting price trends and grasping industrial development trends. question

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