Substation operation risk assessment method considering time-varying state of electrical main equipment

A technology of operation risk and time-varying state, applied in the direction of calculation, instrument, data processing application, etc., can solve the problems of limited application of short-term risk assessment in substations, incomplete consideration factors, etc., and achieve the effect of reliable state evaluation results

Active Publication Date: 2020-12-22
GUANGZHOU POWER SUPPLY BUREAU GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

The above literature proposes some improvements in the equipment failure probability model, but its considerations are not complete, and its application in the short-term risk assessment of substations is limited

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  • Substation operation risk assessment method considering time-varying state of electrical main equipment
  • Substation operation risk assessment method considering time-varying state of electrical main equipment
  • Substation operation risk assessment method considering time-varying state of electrical main equipment

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Embodiment Construction

[0059] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0060] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention discloses a substation operation risk assessment method considering the time-varying state of electrical main equipment, including the following steps:

[0061] S1. According to the evaluation guidelines for electrical main equipment status, such as figure 2 As shown, the status score of each component in the electrical main equipment is obtained according to the hierarchical classification of the fault tree, and the weight coefficient of each component is determined by the analytic hierarchy process, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results of each electrical main equipment are obtained. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results are used to classify the status of electrical main equipment;

[0062] S2. Considering the influence of the state of the main electrical equipment and weather conditions o...

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Abstract

The invention provides a substation operation risk assessment method considering the time-varying state of electrical main equipment, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the state score of each part in the electrical main equipment according to the layering and grading of a fault tree, determining the weight coefficient of each part through an analytic hierarchy process, and solving thefuzzy comprehensive evaluation result of each electrical main equipment, carrying out electrical main equipment state classification; considering the influence of the state of the electrical main equipment and the weather condition on the fault probability, solving the fault probability of the electrical main equipment in the current time period; by adopting a Monte Carlo method, determining the normal operation or fault shutdown state of the main equipment, and evaluating the short-time operation risk index of the transformer substation by taking the connectivity between the power inlet wireof the transformer substation and a load point as a risk quantification index; and if the short-time operation risk index of the transformer substation meets the preset condition, sending early warning information. According to the method, preventive measures can be taken in advance, the influence of accidental faults and weather disasters on the transformer substation is reduced, and the operation reliability level of the transformer substation is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system risk assessment, in particular to a substation operation risk assessment method taking into account the time-varying state of electrical main equipment. Background technique [0002] As the hub of the power system, the substation's safe operation level is of great significance to the safe and stable operation of the power system and the reliable power supply to users. The failure of main electrical equipment such as transformers and circuit breakers in the substation may cause the risk of load loss, and even cause vicious accidents such as substation outage. [0003] In the conventional substation risk assessment, the equipment failure probability is usually set to a constant value in order to simplify the calculation, that is, the long-term reliability index of the substation is calculated according to the annual average failure probability. In the actual system, the failure probability of equipment ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q10/067G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 张璞黄文韬王建陈鸿昆张波蒋健陈文睿张海川孙超谢志林
Owner GUANGZHOU POWER SUPPLY BUREAU GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO LTD
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