Wind power scene generation method and system based on probability distribution

Abstract

The invention provides a wind power scene generation method and system based on probability distribution, and the method comprises the steps of obtaining the historical data of a prediction value andan actual measurement value of wind power, and extracting the difference between the prediction value and the actual measurement value of the wind power, i.e., a prediction error; selecting a wind speed, a wind direction and a fitting error which directly influence wind power, and respectively fitting distribution of prediction errors under the influence of the wind speed, the wind direction and the fitting error; combining the prediction error distribution under the three influence factors according to corresponding weight parameters, taking the minimum residual sum of squares of a probability density function and a distribution histogram as an objective function, solving an optimal solution of the weight, and obtaining a prediction error probability density function; discretizing the probability density function to obtain a large number of random scenes, and selecting typical scenes; according to the invention, mixed distribution is adopted, weights are set for error distribution under different influence factors, the influence of the influence factors on the error distribution is comprehensively considered, and an obtained fitting result is more accurate than single error distribution.

Description

technical field [0001] The disclosure belongs to the technical field of wind power generation, and in particular relates to a method and system for generating a wind power scene based on probability distribution. Background technique [0002] The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present disclosure and do not necessarily constitute prior art. [0003] As a large-scale, pollution-free renewable energy, wind energy is inexhaustible; and the construction period of wind farms is short, the installed scale is flexible and the operation cost is low. Based on this, wind power generation technology is widely favored. However, the intermittent nature of wind speed makes wind power generation highly random and unstable, resulting in reduced power quality and reliability of grid connection, which poses a huge challenge to wind power technology. Aiming at the impact of the randomness of wind power fluctuations, wind power forecasting techno...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] In order to overcome the deficiencies of the above-mentioned prior art, the present disclosure provides a method for generating wind power scenarios based on probability distribution, which solves the problem of inaccurate analysis of wind power prediction error probability, too many generated scenarios, and unrepresentative generated scenarios in existing research. And other issues

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