Coal-electricity linkage method based on medium and long term markets and risk assessment method thereof

A medium-to-long-term, coal-fired power technology, applied in data processing applications, instruments, calculations, etc., can solve problems such as difficulty in contract performance, decline in power generation willingness, and inability to transmit to the user side, achieving the effect of reducing transaction risks and reducing fluctuations

Pending Publication Date: 2022-03-18
STATE GRID HUBEI ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY +2
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] At present, my country's electricity market transactions are still dominated by medium and long-term transactions. Through the medium- and long-term contracts, the "ballast stone" of electricity prices, after locking most of the electricity transaction prices in the market, the fluctuations in upstream fuel prices will be completely borne by the main body of the power generation side, and cannot be transmitted to users. On the one hand, market transactions lack relevant means to control the risk of fuel price fluctuations
For example, the price of thermal coal in a certain year showed a "V"-shaped curve change. Compared with previous years, the overall level of coal prices in this year was relatively high, thermal power companies suffered serious losses, market transaction risks increased sharply, and the willingness to generate electricity was extremely reduced. There were difficulties in fulfilling contracts.

Method used

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  • Coal-electricity linkage method based on medium and long term markets and risk assessment method thereof
  • Coal-electricity linkage method based on medium and long term markets and risk assessment method thereof
  • Coal-electricity linkage method based on medium and long term markets and risk assessment method thereof

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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0044] A coal-electricity linkage method based on the medium and long-term market, such as figure 1 As shown, it is mainly divided into the following parts:

[0045] (1) Coal price reference index selection

[0046] At present, there are many kinds of domestic thermal coal price indexes, common ones include CCI index, BSPI index, CCTD index and CECI index, etc. The trading ranges tracked by various coal price indexes are different, and the price fluctuations are also different. The appropriate one should be selected according to the actual situation. coal price reference index.

[0047] (2) Selection of linkage interval

[0048] According to the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Memorandum on Stabilizing Abnormal Price Fluctuations in the Coal Market" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other four departments in 2017, the green area for thermal coal prices is defined as 500-570 yuan / ton. Therefore, the linkage transaction method does not perf...

Embodiment 2

[0058] A transaction risk assessment model mainly includes the following contents.

[0059] (1) Calculation of the average coal-fired unit cost in the area where the above-mentioned single coal-fired unit is located

[0060] The cost of a coal-fired unit can be divided into two parts: fixed cost and fuel cost: the fixed cost does not change with the fuel price, and is composed of the annualized investment cost A and fixed operation and maintenance costs; the fuel cost is related to the coal price Index, coal transportation cost T, unit Coal consumption for power generation is related to i. Among them, the annualized investment cost A is mainly the depreciation cost of the unit investment, which can be calculated by the net present value method at a fixed discount rate; the fixed operation and maintenance cost includes material costs, wages, welfare fees, maintenance fees, etc., and is approximately linear with the total investment cost of the unit The relationship can be esti...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of electrical engineering, and particularly relates to a coal-electricity linkage method based on medium and long term markets and a risk assessment method thereof, on the basis of designing a coal-electricity linkage mechanism, by analyzing the cost composition of a coal-fired unit, a risk assessment model based on CVaR is constructed, and market transaction risks before and after linkage are assessed according to historical data. Firstly, a coal-electricity price linkage mechanism is designed based on existing policy documents and actual unit coal consumption; dividing the power generation cost of the coal-fired unit into two parts, namely fixed cost and fuel cost, and obtaining a cost expression of the coal-fired unit in combination with specific data; constructing a transaction risk model faced by the unit; and finally, analyzing the effectiveness of the linkage method by using actual market transaction data. The method provides a new thought for dredging upstream coal price change to downstream power consumers, and is beneficial for thermal power enterprises to maintain power generation enthusiasm during high coal price period, thereby ensuring national economy development when supply-demand relationship is tense.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electrical engineering, and more specifically relates to a coal-electricity linkage method and a risk assessment method based on medium and long-term markets. Background technique [0002] At present, my country's electricity market transactions are still dominated by medium and long-term transactions. Through the medium- and long-term contracts, the "ballast stone" of electricity prices, after locking most of the electricity transaction prices in the market, the upstream fuel price fluctuations will be completely borne by the main body of the power generation side, and cannot be transmitted to users. On the one hand, market transactions lack relevant means to control the risk of fuel price fluctuations. For example, the price of thermal coal in a certain year showed a "V"-shaped curve change. Compared with previous years, the overall level of coal prices in this year was relatively high, thermal power companies suf...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0637G06Q10/0635G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 刘翊枫汤旸霍伟强王静刘美婷高雄万靖别芳玫范玉宏陈新宇吴俊辉张玉欣文劲宇
Owner STATE GRID HUBEI ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY
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