Power system planning scheme flexibility assessment method based on probability risk assessment

Abstract

The invention relates to a power system planning scheme flexibility assessment method based on probability risk assessment. The power system planning scheme flexibility assessment method includes that (1) candidate planning schemes are made according to network topology and future requirements of a power system; (2) uncertain factors and the probability characteristic of the uncertain factors which are faced by the planning schemes are determined according to historical data and future forecasting of the power system; (3) the risk indicators of the candidate planning schemes are calculated according to the uncertain factors and the probability characteristic of the uncertain factors, and risk quantitative assessment is carried out; (4) the flexibility of the planning schemes is assessed according to the risk indicators, the candidate planning schemes with low risk indicators has a high capability for handling various future uncertain factors and good flexibility, and the candidate planning schemes with high risk indicators has a low capability for handling various furture uncertain factors and poor flexibility; and (5) the planning scheme is determined according to the risk indicators of the candidate planning schemes by combining the indicators of the reliability and the economical efficiency of the candidate planning schemes. The risk assessment method is used for processing the probability characteristic of the uncertain factors faced by the system and the effect of the probability characteristic on the power system, and can assess the flexibility of the planning schemes.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention is a method for evaluating the flexibility of power system planning schemes based on probabilistic risk assessment, which belongs to the innovative technology of the method for evaluating the flexibility of power system planning schemes based on probabilistic risk assessment. Background technique [0002] Power system planning evaluation is a complex system engineering, which must fully consider many factors such as the relationship between power supply and demand, the coordination of power grid construction and economic development, and the uncertainty of power grid development. Therefore, it is impossible to evaluate the planning scheme from a single angle, but various factors should be considered comprehensively to form a comprehensive comprehensive evaluation standard. The traditional power system planning evaluation is mainly carried out from two aspects of reliability and economy. [0003] Reliability assessment is mainly aimed at ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] At present, there is no generally accepted evaluation method and index for the flexibility evaluation of power system planning schemes

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