The invention belongs to the technical field of
watershed water-wind-light integrated operation, and relates to a
watershed water-wind-light integrated key operation
risk identification method. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, starting from complex coordinated operation requirements such as hydroelectric comprehensive utilization requirements, multi-level scheduling, multiple time scales and water-wind-light
complementation, constructing a
cascade hydroelectric operation risk
system and constructing seven quantitative indexes of the
system; secondly, constructing a
watershed water-wind-light
clean energy base annual 8760h panoramic
time sequence operation
simulation model, and comparing and calculating
cascade hydropower operation risk change levels before and after
new energy access; and finally, proposing a risk sorting method
coupling TOPSIS and AHP, eliminating different
risk index units and magnitude differences, and identifying key risks. By taking a
clean energy base at the downstream of the Jinsha River as an application example, various
risk distribution characteristics are disclosed, water and
electricity waste water, output fluctuation and peak regulation pressure risks are found to be more sensitive to
new energy access, and the sensitivity of the risks to seasons and
new energy installation is explored and analyzed.