Wind power climbing prediction model switching method based on gale weather classification

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of wind power climbing prediction, and relates to a wind power climbing prediction model switching method based on gale weather classification. The method includes the following steps of firstly, exacting characteristic quantities which can obviously represent the gale weather and characteristic indexes which can obviously represent the gale weather according to historical gale fluctuation weather in an assigned geographical range and forming a distinguishing expression; secondly, calculating a prediction range, the weighting coefficient of the characteristic quantities and the weighting coefficient of the characteristic indexes through the distinguishing criterion in the Fisher distinguishing method, obtaining a distinguishing result and conducting verification and analysis through a statistic test; finally, further obtaining a gale weather classification result through the distinguishing method, and forming a switching mechanism for different statistical prediction models according to the characteristics of the spatial and temporal scales of different types of gale weather. According to the method, the climbing weather distinguishing research is conducted on a result of numerical weather prediction, and the method provides the more accurate switching mechanism for different statistical prediction methods in the aspect of comprehensive prediction methods of wind power climbing.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of wind power climbing prediction and relates to a wind power climbing prediction model switching method based on windy meteorological classification. Background technique [0002] Inventing a switching mechanism suitable for wind power ramp prediction that can optimize the selection of different wind power ramp statistical prediction models is an important part of the research on the effective and safe grid connection of existing wind power. As an emerging green energy with large-scale application, wind power generation brings challenges to power generation and load balance due to its inherent fluctuation characteristics. In order to make wind power as dispatchable as other conventional energy sources, an accurate and reliable wind power forecasting system is an essential choice to improve the capacity of the power system to accommodate wind power. [0003] Wind power ramp refers to the wind power fluctuation proces...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] At present, in the research of wind power climbing prediction at home and abroad, the inherent dynamics and thermodynamics analysis of various windy weather that causes slope climbing has not been effectively carried out, so that the climbing weather has not been effectively extracted and tracked, which has caused The lack of some meteorological information that can cause large fluctuations in wind power

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