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A method of establishing a wind speed power conversion probability model

A technology of power conversion and probability model, which is applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as unsatisfactory operation effects, and achieve the effects of improving work efficiency, improving prediction accuracy, and high computing efficiency

Active Publication Date: 2017-01-11
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

The traditional method is to perform curve fitting according to the scatter diagram of wind speed and power data. This method uses a fitting curve to perform one-to-one mapping from wind speed to power, but in fact, the same wind power output power is also affected by other random factors besides wind speed. , using a curve as a wind speed power conversion model does not work well in many forecasting systems

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  • A method of establishing a wind speed power conversion probability model
  • A method of establishing a wind speed power conversion probability model
  • A method of establishing a wind speed power conversion probability model

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Embodiment Construction

[0037] The specific embodiments of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0038] Such as figure 1 as shown, figure 1 It is the structural diagram of the forecasting system of the present invention; the forecasting system collects the predicted value of wind speed and wind direction in advance from the meteorological department, and collects real-time output power from the wind farm data acquisition system (SCADA); the wind speed data and power data are input into the data processing module, and the data processing The module establishes data vectors based on time, wind speed data, and power data; the data vectors are input into the database; the probability modeling module establishes a wind speed power conversion probability model based on the data in the database, and the real-time operation data of the wind farm is transmitted to the data processing module through the SCADA system to realize Scroll h...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for establishing a wind speed-power conversion probability model. The method includes the following steps that a history dataset is established; wind speed sections are divided; the probability density of power is estimated; the wind speed-power conversion probability mode is established. A mapping relation between wind speed and wind electricity power is established based on technologies including power probability statistics and the like, accuracy of establishing the wind speed-power probability model is improved, and the efficiency of establishing the model is improved, so that accuracy of predicating the wind electricity power is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method in the technical field of wind power generation power forecasting, in particular to a method for establishing a wind speed power conversion probability model based on a mathematical statistical method. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of wind power generation, the output power of wind power has strong randomness, and the current prediction level cannot meet the needs of the actual operation of the power system. Accurate wind power prediction is conducive to the power dispatching department to arrange the power generation plan of the regional power system , to ensure the power quality and reduce the reserve capacity of the system, which is of great significance for reducing the operating cost of the power system. [0003] In the current wind power forecasting system, an important link is to realize the conversion from wind speed to power under the premise of known forecast wind speed data, which ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 陈志宝陈颖周海丁杰程序曹潇崔方谭志萍王知嘉于炳霞丁宇宇周强朱想丁煌
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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