GIS (Geographic Information System) overlay analysis-based domino accident influence probability analysis method

Abstract

A GIS (Geographic Information System) overlay analysis-based domino accident influence probability analysis method relates to the technical field of prediction on public safety accidents and solves the technical problem about the analysis on the domino accidents in a chemical industrial area. The method starts from a danger source accident and the geological position where the danger source accident is positioned, each danger source is classified according to accident types, different accident diffusion models are built, the affected danger probability range after the accident occurs is calculated, gridding calculation is performed on a danger source research area by combining a GIS geological netting theory, an accident influence probability radius function is built, GIS overlay calculation is performed according to each element and factor of the danger source and environment parameters, an area overlay recursion calculation model is built, a peripheral affected danger source secondary accident weighting value is induced into the recursion calculation model, the weighing ratios of all danger sources are calculated in sequence in a recursion mode, and the maximal probability order that the rest multiple danger sources occur to the domino effect is finally calculated. The method provided by the invention is suitable for the influence probability analysis on the domino accidents in the chemical industrial area.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to public safety accident prediction technology, in particular to a technology based on a GIS superposition analysis method for analyzing the impact probability of a domino accident. Background technique [0002] A large number of hazards are concentrated in the chemical industry area due to the supply relationship. Once an accident occurs, it is very easy to cause a domino chain accident. like image 3 As shown, when an accident occurs in any one of the hazardous source devices in the chemical industry, it will cause a domino accident to the surrounding devices through thermal radiation, shock waves or debris. When the number of hazardous source devices in the chemical industry is huge, the possible The total number of domino scenes is also increasing. [0003] The research on the domino effect in foreign countries is earlier. As early as 1996, the Council of the European Union passed a bill requiring member states to impose str...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the large randomness of the distribution of enterprises in the chemical industry park, once an accident occurs, it is sometimes difficult to conduct real-time quantitative analysis of the accident probability of enterprises in the park from the theoretical model alone.

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