This invention provides a dynamic
analysis method and
system for domino accident risks in
petrochemical plants. The method mines the correlations between different hazardous events in historical accidents of
petrochemical plants, comprehensively analyzes all possible domino accident chains around the processes and equipment of relevant units, forming a domino accident chain
library for the
petrochemical plant; then it analyzes the reliability and
failure probability of available safety barriers in the petrochemical
plant; analyzes the accident escalation probability of the petrochemical
plant under the action of safety barriers, characterizing the domino risk escalation probability; selects hazardous accident chains whose risk escalation probability exceeds a set
risk probability rule, calculates and predicts the dynamic
risk probability of the petrochemical
plant based on the consequences of the hazardous accidents, executes risk warnings, and provides
risk control solutions. This approach overcomes the shortcomings of existing analysis techniques, such as overly conservative results and insufficient realism, comprehensively considers
domino effect accident scenarios caused by the consequences of risk events, and achieves a systematic quantitative
risk assessment of hazardous accidents.