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Fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for railway snow disaster risk

A technology of fuzzy synthesis and risk assessment, applied in data processing applications, instruments, calculations, etc., can solve problems such as reluctance of evaluation conclusions, and achieve the effect of accurate evaluation, reducing impact, and accurate evaluation results.

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-04-08
NANJING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Traditional disaster risk assessment generally judges the disaster level based on the principle of maximum membership degree, but when the largest component in the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix is ​​not much different from the second largest component, it is somewhat reluctant to draw an evaluation conclusion based on the principle of maximum membership degree

Method used

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  • Fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for railway snow disaster risk
  • Fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for railway snow disaster risk
  • Fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for railway snow disaster risk

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0100] Based on expert opinions, the risk assessment grades of railway heavy snow disasters are divided into 5 grades: V 1 = High, V 2 = higher, V 3 = General, V 4 = lower, V 5 = Low, select 10 experts in the industry, provide railway operation and related historical data, solicit experts’ judgment on the state of the railway heavy snow disaster risk level in the “Fengle-Taiping” section of a certain railway bureau by sending a letter, and count expert opinions, and get The risk level probability distribution of each risk indicator is shown in Table 3:

[0101] Table 3 Probability distribution of risk levels

[0102]

[0103] Then each fuzzy expert judgment matrix can be obtained as:

[0104] R 1 = 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 . 4 ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for a railway snow disaster risk. The method comprises the following steps: establishing a factor set for measuring the railway snow disaster risk; setting a railway snow disaster risk assessment level; collecting expert opinions, performing secondary risk evaluation matrix assessment, and establishing a railway snow disaster fuzzy expert evaluation matrix; determining each risk indicator weight based on an improved group analytic hierarchy process; determining a secondary fuzzy assessment vector; determining the membership vector of a railway disaster risk factor set specific to a comment set; and determining a railway snow disaster risk assessment level by comprehensively adopting a confidence criterion and a level characteristic value formula. According to the method, the improved group analytic hierarchy process is combined with a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, so that accurate assessment of the railway snow disaster risk is realized, and the influence of a snow disaster on railway transportation and the society is lowered. The method has important theoretical significance to scientific and accurate formulation of disaster prevention and disaster preparedness measures and prevention of possible railway sudden accidents.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of railway system risk assessment, in particular to a fuzzy comprehensive assessment method for railway heavy snow disaster risk. Background technique [0002] Snow disaster risk assessment is an indispensable basic work in disaster management, and it is a major practical issue that is widely concerned by the government and society. Decision-making plays an important supporting role. [0003] Risk assessment is a method to determine the nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential disaster-causing factors and assessing the existence of vulnerabilities that can cause harm to human life, property and living environment. Generally, the greater the snowfall intensity and the deeper the snow accumulation, the more serious the losses caused by the disaster and the greater the risk of snow disaster. [0004] At present, the research on disaster risk assessment of China's railways is still in its infancy, lack...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/30
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/40
Inventor 王夫歌石奋义蒋杰姚小文王晓浩邢宗义张永
Owner NANJING UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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