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Transmission and transformation project cost estimation method

A technology for engineering cost and forecasting methods, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, calculations, etc., and can solve problems such as lack of scientific and effective theoretical support

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-08-24
牛东晓 +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the domestic research on the cost prediction model of power transmission and transformation projects and the determination of management and control objectives lack scientific and effective theoretical support, and the effective mining of the development law of project cost historical data still needs to be strengthened. need to improve

Method used

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  • Transmission and transformation project cost estimation method
  • Transmission and transformation project cost estimation method
  • Transmission and transformation project cost estimation method

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0254] Example 1 Cost Level Prediction Based on "Horizontal Forecast Model"

[0255] The present invention takes the prediction of the unit capacity cost level of a new 220kV outdoor substation in Zhejiang Province from 2013 to 2018 as an example to conduct research on model optimization and cost prediction.

[0256] 1) Optimization of cost prediction model

[0257] Taking the newly built 220kV outdoor substation project as an example, combined with the actual data of the actual collection index system and expert scoring opinions, the index values ​​of the adaptability evaluation index system of the time series cost prediction model are determined as shown in Table 2:

[0258] Table 2 sample data

[0259]

[0260]

[0261] There are qualitative indicators and quantitative indicators in the indicators, and the indicator units are not the same. In order to make the sample data comparable, it is necessary to carry out dimensionless processing on the indicator data. The s...

Embodiment 2

[0306] Example 2 Cost Level Prediction Based on "Vertical Forecast Model"

[0307] In the present invention, model optimization and cost prediction are carried out by taking the prediction of a 220kV high-voltage side 220kV outdoor type substation project as an example in 2013.

[0308] 1) Optimization of cost prediction model

[0309] The prediction object of the present invention is the 220kV new outdoor substation project on the high-voltage side in 2013. The present invention takes the 220kV outdoor substation project on the high-voltage side as an example and combines the actual data of the collected index system and expert scoring opinions to determine the specific project cost prediction model. The index values ​​of the adaptability evaluation index system are shown in Table 7:

[0310] Table 7 Sample data

[0311]

[0312] It can be seen from Table 7 that there are qualitative indicators and quantitative indicators in the indicators, and the indicator units are no...

Embodiment 3

[0341] Example 3 Cost level prediction based on "horizontal and vertical integration"

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of transmission and transformation project cost management, and particularly relates to a transmission and transformation project cost estimation method. The transmission and transformation project cost estimation method comprises the steps of (1) prediction target determination; (2) construction of a prediction model applicability evaluation index system; (3) fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; and (4) combination prediction. The invention provides the transmission and transformation project prediction method, which can predict a transmission and transformation project considering from both the time scale and the specific project scale by means of combining a lateral prediction model and a longitudinal prediction model, thereby improving the accuracy and stability of transmission and transformation project prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of cost management of power transmission and transformation projects, in particular to a method for predicting the cost of power transmission and transformation projects. Background technique [0002] Power transmission and transformation projects are an important part of national economic infrastructure construction. The quality of construction not only affects the development of the power industry itself and the macro economy, but also has a ripple effect on related industries. The development of the national economy at this stage requires the acceleration of power construction. However, the total investment in power engineering construction is limited, and the actual cost level is constantly rising. Therefore, doing a good job in the analysis and decision-making of power engineering investment, optimizing power engineering design, reasonably determining the cost of power engineering, and effectively controlling the...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04
Inventor 牛东晓路妍宋宗耘邱金鹏俞敏梁樑童军刘福炎蔡张花
Owner 牛东晓
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