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Residual correction method for wind speed prediction based on GARCH (Generalized ARCH) model

A technology of wind speed prediction and residual error correction, which is applied in the field of power transmission and distribution, and achieves the effect of simple structure

Pending Publication Date: 2017-05-03
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, due to the intermittent and fluctuating wind speed, the connection of large-capacity wind power to the grid will pose serious challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system and ensure the quality of power.

Method used

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  • Residual correction method for wind speed prediction based on GARCH (Generalized ARCH) model
  • Residual correction method for wind speed prediction based on GARCH (Generalized ARCH) model
  • Residual correction method for wind speed prediction based on GARCH (Generalized ARCH) model

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Embodiment Construction

[0028] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention are clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0029] In the following description, a lot of specific details are set forth in order to fully understand the present invention, but the present invention can also be implemented in other ways different from those described here, and those skilled in the art can do it without departing from the meaning of the present invention. By analogy, the present invention is therefore not limited to the specific examples disclosed below.

[0030] The present inve...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a residual correction method for wind speed prediction based on a GARCH (Generalized ARCH) model, belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution, and aims to improve an original wind speed prediction method and improve the wind speed prediction precision. The technical scheme is as follows: adopting the GARCH model to predict an original wind speed series; establishing a regression model for a residual fitted by the GARCH model, and using the regression model to predict the following residuals; and finally, using a predicted value to correct a preliminary prediction result of the GARCH model. The experimental result shows that the residual correction method for the wind speed prediction based on the GARCH model provided by the invention is better than a prediction method of a traditional ARMA and a prediction method of a BP neural network model, and has higher prediction accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method capable of accurately predicting wind speed and then predicting wind farm power, belonging to the technical field of power transmission and distribution, and in particular to a wind speed prediction residual correction method based on a GARCH model. Background technique [0002] Energy is one of the indispensable basic elements for the development of all countries, and with the rapid development of the global economy, the demand for energy is also increasing. However, traditional fossil energy reserves are limited and non-renewable. Once exhausted, human development will face a huge crisis; on the other hand, fossil energy combustion releases SO2 and other environmentally harmful gases, and also releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that lead to global warming. Therefore, all countries are aware that getting rid of dependence on fossil energy and developing new energy is a necessary choice for the sustaina...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 赵征王晓亮汪向硕张亚刚勾海芝杨蕃
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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