Regional new energy power supply structure optimization prediction method and system

A forecasting method and forecasting system technology, applied in forecasting, system integration technology, information technology support systems, etc., can solve the problems of rigid forecasting rules, low forecasting accuracy, and instability of new energy power supply structures, and achieve a wide range of model adaptation. , the effect of high prediction accuracy and less original data

Active Publication Date: 2018-06-01
STATE GRID XINJIANG ELECTRIC POWER CO ECONOMIC TECH RES INST +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In view of the above analysis, the present invention aims to provide a new energy power structure optimization prediction method and system, by constructing a three-stage comprehensive optimization prediction model of "total amount-structure-component", to solve the existing rules of new energy power structure prediction Rigid, poorly predicted or unstable issues

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  • Regional new energy power supply structure optimization prediction method and system
  • Regional new energy power supply structure optimization prediction method and system
  • Regional new energy power supply structure optimization prediction method and system

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[0056] Preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein the accompanying drawings constitute a part of the application and together with the embodiments of the present invention are used to explain the principle of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.

[0057] A specific embodiment of the present invention discloses a method for optimizing and predicting the structure of new energy power sources in a region. By constructing a three-stage comprehensive optimization forecast model of "total amount-structure-component", the structural optimization of new energy sources is predicted. Such as figure 1 As shown, the total development of new energy power sources is predicted and analyzed. On the premise of not destroying the trend and causality in the original data, the improved gray prediction model is used to infer the changes of the series itself...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a regional new energy power supply structure optimization prediction method and system, and a "total amount-structure-component" three-phase comprehensive optimization prediction model is established. The method includes: predicting a new energy power supply on-grid electric quantity total amount by employing an improved grey prediction model, optimizing a prediction result of the power supply on-grid electric quantity total amount, and obtaining a prediction result X of the new energy power supply on-grid electric quantity total amount; predicting a new energy on-gridelectric quantity structure by employing a dynamic planning prediction model based on error optimization, and obtaining a structure prediction result F of the new energy power supply branch power supply type; and obtaining a component prediction result R of the new energy power supply branch power supply type by employing the obtained prediction result X of the new energy power supply on-grid electric quantity total amount and the structure prediction result F of the new energy power supply branch power supply type. According to the method and system, optimized prediction of a regional new energy power supply structure can be realized, the application range is wide, and the prediction precision is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of new energy power generation, in particular to a method and system for optimizing and predicting the structure of new energy power sources in a region. Background technique [0002] New energy power generation has been favored by countries all over the world because of its environmental friendliness, low pollution and renewable characteristics. Encouraged and supported by national policies, my country's new energy power generation has developed rapidly in the past ten years, and has now become the country with the largest wind power scale and the fastest development speed in the world. The sudden emergence of new energy provides an alternative solution for the sustainable utilization of energy in our country, but the power generation output of new energy is unstable and fluctuates randomly, large-scale, centralized new energy development mode, large-capacity, long-distance, high-voltage power transmission ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 赵欣何琳刘金朋李昌陵贾政豪杨亚丽陈超
Owner STATE GRID XINJIANG ELECTRIC POWER CO ECONOMIC TECH RES INST
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